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Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 28 2007, 18:23:55     : Ñòðàñòè âîêðóã Èðàíà: Ðîññèÿ, Øòàòû, Èçðàèëü

http://www.inopressa.ru/wsj/2007/02/28/13:18:27/iran
Wall Street Journal

Ðîññèéñêèå êîíòðàêòû íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå ìåøàþò àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòðàòåãèè ïî Èðàíó
Ãðåãîðè Óàéò è Íèë Êèíã

Ïîïûòêè ÑØÀ îáóçäàòü Èðàí è åãî ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó íàòàëêèâàþòñÿ íà íîâîå ïðåïÿòñòâèå: æåëàíèå Ðîññèè âåðíóòü ñåáå âëèÿíèå è ðûíêè íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå.

Ïðîøëîé îñåíüþ, â òî âðåìÿ êàê ÑØÀ è Ðîññèÿ ñïîðèëè ïî ïîâîäó ðåçîëþöèè ÎÎÍ î ìåðàõ ïðîòèâîäåéñòâèÿ èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå, Ìîñêâà íåçàìåòíî ïðîäâèãàëàñü âïåðåä íà äðóãîì ôðîíòå. Êàê ïðèçíàëè â äåêàáðå ðîññèéñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè, îíà îñóùåñòâèëà ïîñòàâêè ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíûõ êîìïëåêñîâ äëÿ çàùèòû èðàíñêèõ èññëåäîâàòåëüñêèõ è îáîãàòèòåëüíûõ ïðåäïðèÿòèé íà ñóììó ñâûøå 700 ìëí äîëëàðîâ. Ïîñëå ýòîãî ðîññèéñêèå âîåííûå íà÷àëè îáó÷àòü èðàíñêèõ îôèöåðîâ èñïîëüçîâàíèþ íîâûõ ñèñòåì.

"Èðàí íå äîëæåí ÷óâñòâîâàòü ñåáÿ âî âðàæäåáíîì îêðóæåíèè, – çàÿâèë ïðåçèäåíò Âëàäèìèð Ïóòèí êàíàëó "Àëü-Äæàçèðà" â ôåâðàëå, ïîñëå òîãî êàê Òåãåðàí óñïåøíî èñïûòàë ïîëó÷åííîå âîîðóæåíèå. – Èðàíñêèé íàðîä è èðàíñêîå ðóêîâîäñòâî äîëæíû ÷óâñòâîâàòü, ÷òî ó íèõ â ìèðå åñòü äðóçüÿ".

Óñèëèâøèñü çà ñ÷åò îãðîìíûõ íåôòÿíûõ äîõîäîâ è ïîäíÿâøåéñÿ ýêîíîìèêè, Êðåìëü òåïåðü íàìåðåí âåðíóòü ñåáå âëèÿíèå â ìèðå è ñîñòàâèòü êîíêóðåíöèþ ÑØÀ, îñîáåííî íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå. Â÷åðà ÑØÀ, ïîääàâøèñü îáùèì òðåáîâàíèÿì âñòóïèòü â ïåðåãîâîðû ñ Òåãåðàíîì è äðóãèìè ñâîèìè ïðîòèâíèêàìè, ñîãëàñèëèñü ïðèñîåäèíèòüñÿ ê ðåãèîíàëüíûì ïåðåãîâîðàì ïî Èðàêó ñ ó÷àñòèåì Èðàíà è Ñèðèè. Îäíàêî, ïî çàÿâëåíèþ Âàøèíãòîíà, êðóã îáñóæäàåìûõ âîïðîñîâ áóäåò óçêèì.

Áîðÿñü çà âîçâðàùåíèå âëèÿíèÿ â ðåãèîíå, Ìîñêâà ñïèñàëà ñîâåòñêèå äîëãè íà ìèëëèàðäû äîëëàðîâ è ïîäïèñàëà ðÿä ïðèáûëüíûõ ýíåðãåòè÷åñêèõ è îðóæåéíûõ êîíòðàêòîâ. Ýòî âûçâàëî â Âàøèíãòîíå ðîñò áåñïîêîéñòâà. Êðîìå òîãî, âëàñòè ÑØÀ è Èçðàèëÿ ãîâîðÿò î ïðèçíàêàõ òîãî, ÷òî ðîññèéñêèå ïðîòèâîòàíêîâûå ðàêåòû âíîâü ïîïàäàþò â ðóêè ëèâàíñêîé ãðóïïèðîâêè "Õèçáàëëà" ÷åðåç Ñèðèþ. Ýòî ïðîèñõîäèò íåñìîòðÿ íà òî, ÷òî Êðåìëü ïîîáåùàë ïåðåêðûòü ýòè êàíàëû ïîñëå âîéíû Èçðàèëÿ ñ "Õèçáàëëîé" ïðîøåäøèì ëåòîì. Ðîññèÿ èñïîðòèëà îòíîøåíèÿ ñ ÑØÀ åùå è òåì, ÷òî íà÷àëà ðàçâèâàòü êîíòàêòû ñ ïàëåñòèíñêîé âîîðóæåííîé ãðóïïèðîâêîé "Õàìàñ", êîòîðóþ ÑØÀ ïðè÷èñëÿþò ê òåððîðèñòè÷åñêèì îðãàíèçàöèÿì.

Õàðàêòåðíûé ïðèìåð

Íî ñàìûé õàðàêòåðíûé ïðèìåð íîâîé àãðåññèâíîé ïîëèòèêè Ðîññèè – ýòî äåéñòâèÿ ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê Èðàíó. Àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà íåñêîëüêî ìåñÿöåâ ñòàðàëàñü ïîâëèÿòü íà Ìîñêâó ñ öåëüþ íåäîïóùåíèÿ îðóæåéíîãî êîíòðàêòà ñ Èðàíîì – êðóïíåéøåãî ìåæäó ýòèìè ñòðàíàìè çà ìíîãèå ãîäû. Äëÿ Áåëîãî äîìà è áîëüøåé ÷àñòè àðàáñêîãî ìèðà ïðîøëîãîäíÿÿ âîéíà â Ëèâàíå ïîñëóæèëà ñèãíàëîì î òîì, ÷òî Èðàí âñå àêòèâíåå ïîääåðæèâàåò òàêèå ðàäèêàëüíûå ãðóïïèðîâêè, êàê "Õèçáàëëà". Êàê ñëåäñòâèå, ÑØÀ óâåëè÷èëè ñâîå âîåííîå ïðèñóòñòâèå â Ïåðñèäñêîì çàëèâå è íå ñïåøàò îòêàçàòüñÿ îò èäåè óäàðà ïî Èðàíó. Ýòè æå ñîáûòèÿ ïðèâåëè ê ââåäåíèþ ôèíàíñîâûõ ìåð ïðîòèâ èðàíñêèõ áàíêîâ è èíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ó÷ðåæäåíèé, à òàêæå ê ïîïûòêàì ÎÎÍ îñòàíîâèòü èðàíñêóþ ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó.

Ðîññèÿ ïîøëà ñîâñåì èíûì êóðñîì. Íà÷èíàÿ ñ ïðîøëîé îñåíè Ìîñêâà â òå÷åíèå ÷åòûðåõ ìåñÿöåâ èñïîëüçîâàëà ñâîå ïðàâî âåòî â ÎÎÍ, ýôôåêòèâíî ïðåïÿòñòâóÿ ïîïûòêàì ÑØÀ è Åâðîïû ââåñòè æåñòêèå ñàíêöèè â îòâåò íà èðàíñêóþ ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó. Íàêîíåö, â äåêàáðå Ðîññèÿ ñîãëàñèëàñü ñ ñèëüíî óðåçàííûì âàðèàíòîì ðåçîëþöèè, êîòîðûé ëèøü ÷àñòè÷íî çàòðîíóë èðàíñêóþ ÿäåðíóþ è ðàêåòíóþ ïðîãðàììû.

 ÿíâàðå, êîãäà ÑØÀ è Åâðîïà äîáèâàëèñü èçîëÿöèè Èðàíà, à àìåðèêàíñêèå ñèëû çàäåðæàëè ðÿä èðàíñêèõ ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé â Èðàêå, Ïóòèí òåïëî îòðåàãèðîâàë íà èðàíñêîå ïðåäëîæåíèå î ñîçäàíèè Ðîññèåé è Èðàíîì, äâóìÿ ñòðàíàìè ñ êðóïíåéøèìè çàïàñàìè ïðèðîäíîãî ãàçà, ãàçîâîãî àëüÿíñà íàïîäîáèå ÎÏÅÊ. Ýòà èäåÿ âûçâàëà ðåçêî íåãàòèâíóþ ðåàêöèþ ñî ñòîðîíû Âàøèíãòîíà è Åâðîïû.  ôåâðàëå Ïóòèí ïðîèçíåñ â Ãåðìàíèè ðå÷ü, êîòîðàÿ ïîðîäèëà íà Çàïàäå îïàñåíèÿ, íå íà÷èíàåòñÿ ëè íîâàÿ õîëîäíàÿ âîéíà. Îí çàÿâèë, ÷òî âîåííàÿ àãðåññèÿ ÑØÀ ñòàëà ïðè÷èíîé òîãî, ÷òî Èðàí è ïîäîáíûå ñòðàíû ñòðåìÿòñÿ ñîçäàòü ÿäåðíîå îðóæèå.

"Ðîññèÿ – ýòî îãðîìíàÿ ïîìåõà íà èðàíñêîì íàïðàâëåíèè, – ãîâîðèò Äæîí Áîëòîí, êîòîðûé ÷àñòî êîíôëèêòîâàë ñ Ìîñêâîé â ÎÎÍ, ãäå îí äî äåêàáðÿ çàíèìàë äîëæíîñòü àìåðèêàíñêîãî ïîñëà. – Ãîâîðÿ î Ðîññèè è Èðàíå, ñëîæíî îïðåäåëèòü, êòî ÷åé êëèåíò".

Íûíåøíèå ÷èíîâíèêè àäìèíèñòðàöèè, òåñíî ðàáîòàþùèå ñ Ðîññèåé, äàëåêè îò òàêîé æåñòêîñòè â îöåíêàõ. Òåì íå ìåíåå áåñïîêîéñòâî ïî ïîâîäó äåéñòâèé Ìîñêâû íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå – è ïî ïîâîäó åå âíåøíåé ïîëèòèêè â öåëîì – íàðàñòàåò. "×òî êàñàåòñÿ Èðàíà, òî ðóññêèå õîòÿò óãíàòüñÿ ðàçîì çà äâóìÿ çàéöàìè, – óâåðåí îäèí èç âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûõ ÷èíîâíèêîâ â ÑØÀ. – Îíè õîòÿò ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàòü ñâîþ æåñòêóþ ïîçèöèþ íåïðèÿòèÿ ÿäåðíîãî âîîðóæåíèÿ Èðàíà, íî â òî æå âðåìÿ ñîõðàíèòü ñ íèì äðóæåñòâåííûå îòíîøåíèÿ è ïðîäîëæàòü ïîñòàâëÿòü îðóæèå".

Ñóäÿ ïî âñåìó, íàïðÿæåíèå âíîâü óñèëèòñÿ, ïîñêîëüêó íà ïðîøëîé íåäåëå Ìåæäóíàðîäíîå àãåíòñòâî ïî àòîìíîé ýíåðãèè ÎÎÍ îáúÿâèëî, ÷òî Èðàí ñîçäàåò ñîòíè íîâûõ öåíòðèôóã â ñâîåì ãëàâíîì èññëåäîâàòåëüñêîì öåíòðå â Íàòàíçå è àêòèâèçèðóåò ïîïûòêè ïî îáîãàùåíèþ óðàíà. Ìíîãèå íà Çàïàäå âîñïðèíèìàþò ýòè äåéñòâèÿ êàê ïðèçíàê òîãî, ÷òî Òåãåðàí íà ôîíå óâåðåíèé â îáðàòíîì ñòðåìèòñÿ ñîçäàòü ÿäåðíîå îðóæèå. ÑØÀ, Ôðàíöèÿ è Âåëèêîáðèòàíèÿ íåìåäëåííî ïðèçâàëè ê ïðèíÿòèþ íîâîé ðåçîëþöèè ñ ñàíêöèÿìè. Îäíàêî Ðîññèÿ ïðåäóïðåäèëà, ÷òî îíà áóäåò âûñòóïàòü ïðîòèâ ëþáûõ äåéñòâèé, íàïðàâëåííûõ ïðîòèâ èðàíñêîé ýêîíîìèêè.  ïîíåäåëüíèê â Ëîíäîíå ñîñòîÿëàñü äèïëîìàòè÷åñêàÿ âñòðå÷à, îäíàêî ïîäðîáíîñòè ïîêà íå îáñóæäàëèñü.

Ðîññèéñêèå âëàñòè çàÿâëÿþò, ÷òî èõ öåëü àíàëîãè÷íà öåëè ÑØÀ – íå ïîçâîëèòü Èðàíó ïîëó÷èòü ÿäåðíîå îðóæèå. Îäíàêî Ðîññèÿ íàñòàèâàåò, ÷òî ñòðåìëåíèå àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà ê êîíôðîíòàöèè ñ Èðàíîì íå ïðèíåñåò óñïåõà è ìîæåò âûçâàòü î÷åðåäíóþ âîéíó íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå. Êðîìå òîãî, Êðåìëü ðàññìàòðèâàåò Èðàí êàê âàæíîãî ïîêóïàòåëÿ ñâîåãî îðóæèÿ è ìèðíûõ ÿäåðíûõ òåõíîëîãèé è çàÿâëÿåò, ÷òî ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ñâÿçè îáåñïå÷èâàþò åìó ñòîëü íóæíûå ðû÷àãè äàâëåíèÿ íà Òåãåðàí.

Áîëåå ìÿãêèé ïîäõîä

Áîëåå ìÿãêèé ïîäõîä Ìîñêâû ê Èðàíó – ìåòîä êíóòà è ïðÿíèêà – ñëóæèò è äðóãèì öåëÿì Ðîññèè. Îí ïîçâîëÿåò Ìîñêâå ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàòü ñâîå âëèÿíèå â Ñîâåòå Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, ãäå Ðîññèÿ – îäíà èç ïÿòè ñòðàí, èìåþùèõ ïðàâî âåòî. Ïðåïÿòñòâóÿ æåñòêèì ýêîíîìè÷åñêèì ñàíêöèÿì, Ðîññèÿ ìîæåò ïðîäîëæèòü ðàñøèðåíèå òîðãîâûõ ñâÿçåé ñ Èðàíîì è ïîêàçàòü äðóãèì ñòðàíàì Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà, ÷òî äðóæáà ñ Ìîñêâîé ïîëèòè÷åñêè âûãîäíà.

Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê – ãëàâíûé öåëåâîé ðûíîê äëÿ ðîññèéñêîãî îðóæèÿ è ÿäåðíûõ òåõíîëîãèé. Èìåííî íà ýòè îòðàñëè ðàññ÷èòûâàåò Ïóòèí, íàìåðåâàÿñü äèâåðñèôèöèðîâàòü çàâèñèìóþ îò íåôòè ýêîíîìèêó ñòðàíû. Êàê îæèäàåòñÿ, â 2007 ãîäó îáùèé ýêñïîðò ðîññèéñêèõ âîîðóæåíèé ñîñòàâèò ðåêîðäíûå 7,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. Ýòà òîðãîâëÿ áûñòðî íàðàùèâàåò òåìïû íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, õîòÿ Ðîññèÿ âñå åùå ñåðüåçíî îòñòàåò îò ÑØÀ è Åâðîïû. Êðîìå òîãî, Ðîññèÿ â ñîîòâåòñòâèè ñ ïîäïèñàííûì â 1992 ãîäó êîíòðàêòîì çàíèìàåòñÿ ñòðîèòåëüñòâîì åäèíñòâåííîé â Èðàíå àòîìíîé ýëåêòðîñòàíöèè â ïîðòîâîì ãîðîäå Áóøåð íà þãå ñòðàíû. Ñåé÷àñ ýòîò ïðîåêò íå âñòðå÷àåò ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ ñî ñòîðîíû àìåðèêàíñêèõ è åâðîïåéñêèõ ëèäåðîâ. Ïóòèí íàçâàë ñàíêöèè ÑØÀ ïðîòèâ ðîññèéñêèõ îðóæåéíûõ è ÿäåðíûõ ýêñïîðòåðîâ, ñâÿçàííûõ ñ Èðàíîì, ïîïûòêàìè ÑØÀ ñîçäàòü óñëîâèÿ äëÿ "íåäîáðîñîâåñòíîé êîíêóðåíöèè". Ïî åãî ñëîâàì, Êðåìëü íå ñòàíåò ïîñòàâëÿòü îðóæèå, êîòîðîå ìîãëî áû èçìåíèòü áàëàíñ ñèë â ðåãèîíå.

Áëàãîäàðÿ ðîñòó ýêîíîìèêè è âûïëà÷åííîìó âíåøíåìó äîëãó Êðåìëü ñåé÷àñ çíà÷èòåëüíî óëó÷øèë ñâîå ïîëîæåíèå, ÷òî ïîçâîëÿåò åìó îòñòàèâàòü ñîáñòâåííûå èíòåðåñû è çàñòàâëÿåò ÑØÀ ïðèñëóøèâàòüñÿ. "Ðîññèÿ íå ïðåòåíäóåò íà ðîëü ñâåðõäåðæàâû, – ñêàçàë Ïóòèí â èíòåðâüþ "Àëü-Äæàçèðå". – Íî Ðîññèÿ çíàåò ñåáå öåíó. È ìû áóäåì ñòðåìèòüñÿ ê òîìó, ÷òîáû ìèð áûë ìíîãîïîëÿðíûì".

Îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà â Ðîññèè çàÿâëÿþò, ÷òî æåñòêèå ñàíêöèè ïðîòèâ Èðàíà ïðèâåäóò ëèøü ê òîìó, ÷òî îí óñêîðèò ðàçðàáîòêó ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ. ßäåðíûå îáúåêòû Èðàíà ñëèøêîì ñèëüíî ðàññðåäîòî÷åíû è õîðîøî çàìàñêèðîâàíû, ïîýòîìó óäàðû ñ âîçäóõà íå ïðèíåñóò óñïåõà, çàÿâëÿþò ðîññèéñêèå ïðåäñòàâèòåëè.  Âàøèíãòîíå è â Åâðîïå ìíîãèå ðàçäåëÿþò èõ òî÷êó çðåíèÿ. Íåóäà÷íîå íàïàäåíèå, ïðåäóïðåæäàþò îíè, ïîðîäèò òàêóþ âîëíó íàñèëèÿ è íåñòàáèëüíîñòè ïî âñåìó Áëèæíåìó Âîñòîêó, ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ êîòîðîé õàîñ â Èðàêå ïîêàæåòñÿ ìåëî÷üþ. Ýòà âîëíà, ïî èõ ìíåíèþ, äîêàòèòñÿ äî þæíûõ ðåãèîíîâ Ðîññèè, óæå ðàñêîëîòûõ ñåïàðàòèçìîì. "Ìû íå ïîääåðæèâàåì ìíåíèå, ÷òî íàèëó÷øèé ñïîñîá äëÿ âûðàáîòêè äîëãîñðî÷íîãî è âñåîáúåìëþùåãî ðåøåíèÿ – ýòî èçîëÿöèÿ è êîíôðîíòàöèÿ", – çàÿâèë ïîñîë Ðîññèè â ÑØÀ Þðèé Óøàêîâ.

Ó Ìîñêâû è Âàøèíãòîíà è ïðåæäå áûâàëè ïðîòèâîðå÷èÿ ïî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûì âîïðîñàì, îäíàêî äî íåäàâíåãî âðåìåíè ýòè êîíôëèêòû íå çàõîäèëè äàëåêî. Íàïðèìåð, âî âðåìÿ ïîäãîòîâêè ÑØÀ ê âòîðæåíèþ â Èðàê â 2003 ãîäó Êðåìëü ïðåäóïðåæäàë, ÷òî ñòðåìëåíèå Âàøèíãòîíà ê êîíôðîíòàöèè îêàæåòñÿ íåïðîäóêòèâíûì. Íî â èòîãå ïóáëè÷íîé êðèòèêîé Ìîñêâà è îãðàíè÷èëàñü.

Åùå â 2005 ãîäó, êîãäà ÑØÀ è Èçðàèëü ïðåäóïðåäèëè, ÷òî îðóæèå ìîæåò ïîïàñòü â ðóêè "Õèçáàëëû", Ìîñêâà îòêàçàëàñü îò ïëàíîâ ïî ïîñòàâêå Ñèðèè ñîâðåìåííûõ ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíûõ ðàêåò. Òîãäà Ðîññèÿ ïîäïèñàëà ñ Âàøèíãòîíîì ñîãëàøåíèå, ïî êîòîðîìó â áóäóùåì îáÿçàëàñü ñîîáùàòü î ïîñòàâêàõ ïîäîáíûõ âîîðóæåíèé.

"Ñëîæíûé ïàðòíåð"

Íî ñåé÷àñ ðàçãîâîðû î "ñòðàòåãè÷åñêîì ïàðòíåðñòâå" Âàøèíãòîíà è Ìîñêâû ïðåêðàòèëèñü. Ðîññèéñêèå âëàñòè ðàññåðæåíû òåì, ÷òî ÑØÀ êðèòèêóþò Ïóòèíà çà ïîäàâëåíèå ðîññèéñêîé îïïîçèöèè. Âûçûâàåò èõ íåäîâîëüñòâî åùå è òî, ÷òî Âàøèíãòîí îáõàæèâàåò áûâøèõ ñîâåòñêèõ ñîñåäåé Ðîññèè è ïðåïÿòñòâóåò ïîïûòêàì êðåìëåâñêèõ ýíåðãåòè÷åñêèõ ãèãàíòîâ ðàñïðîñòðàíèòü ñâîå âëèÿíèå çà ãðàíèöó.

Ïîñëå ôåâðàëüñêîãî âèçèòà â Âàøèíãòîí ìèíèñòð èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Ðîññèè Ñåðãåé Ëàâðîâ çàÿâèë ðîññèéñêîìó òåëåâèäåíèþ, ÷òî ÑØÀ – "ñàìûé ñëîæíûé ïàðòíåð" Ìîñêâû.

Çàòåì Ìîñêâà âûçâàëà â Âàøèíãòîíå çàìåøàòåëüñòâî, ðåçêî âûñòóïèâ ïðîòèâ ïëàíîâ ÑØÀ ïî ñîçäàíèþ â Åâðîïå ñèñòåìû ïðîòèâîðàêåòíîé îáîðîíû äëÿ çàùèòû îò ïîòåíöèàëüíîé óãðîçû ñî ñòîðîíû Èðàíà. Ìîñêîâñêèå âîåííûå â âûðàæåíèÿõ, çàñòàâèâøèõ âñïîìíèòü õîëîäíóþ âîéíó, ïðèãðîçèëè íàöåëèòü ðàêåòû íà àìåðèêàíñêèå áàçû, êîòîðûå ïëàíèðóåòñÿ ðàçìåñòèòü â Ïîëüøå è ×åõèè. Ãîññåêðåòàðü Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ íàçâàëà ýòó óãðîçó "êðàéíå íåóäà÷íîé".

Ïðåäñòàâèòåëè ðîññèéñêèõ âëàñòåé, íà÷èíàÿ ñ Ïóòèíà, ïðàêòè÷åñêè íå ñêðûâàþò óäîâîëüñòâèÿ, ãîâîðÿ î ïðîìàõàõ ÑØÀ íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå è î òîì, ÷òî Ìîñêâà ïðåäóïðåæäàëà: âòîðæåíèå â Èðàê îêàæåòñÿ ïëîõîé èäååé. "Ñåãîäíÿ â ãëàçàõ ðîññèéñêèõ âëàñòåé Àìåðèêà ïîòåðïåëà ãðîìàäíîå ïîðàæåíèå", – ãîâîðèò Åâãåíèé Ñàòàíîâñêèé, ïðåçèäåíò ìîñêîâñêîãî Èíñòèòóòà Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà.

 òî æå âðåìÿ ìíîãîëåòíåå îáõàæèâàíèå Êðåìëåì Èðàíà è àðàáñêèõ ñòðàí Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà ïðèâåëî ê òîìó, ÷òî åãî ïîëèòè÷åñêèå è ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ñâÿçè â ðåãèîíå ðàçâèëèñü äî óðîâíÿ, êîòîðîãî íå áûëî äàæå â ãîäû õîëîäíîé âîéíû.

Íà Ðîññèþ íå äàâèò êîììóíèñòè÷åñêàÿ èäåîëîãèÿ, êîòîðàÿ íå äàâàëà Ñîâåòñêîìó Ñîþçó íàëàäèòü ñâÿçè ñ ìíîæåñòâîì ñòðàí Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà. "Ó íàñ â àðàáñêîì ìèðå âîîáùå èñ÷åçëè ñòðàíû, ñ êîòîðûìè ó íàñ åñòü êàêèå áû òî íè áûëî ïðîòèâîðå÷èÿ", – ñîîáùèë Ïóòèí "Àëü-Äæàçèðå" ïåðåä ñâîåé áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîé ïîåçäêîé.

Êàê è âî âðåìÿ äðóãèõ òóðíå, â ñîñòàâ åãî äåëåãàöèè âîøëè ïðåäñòàâèòåëè êðóïíûõ ðîññèéñêèõ êîìïàíèé, íàìåðåííûõ çàêëþ÷èòü êîíòðàêòû â òàêèõ ñôåðàõ, êàê ýíåðãåòèêà, âîîðóæåíèÿ è ÿäåðíàÿ ýíåðãèÿ.  òî âðåìÿ êàê Çàïàä ïîñòîÿííî êðèòèêóåò Êðåìëü çà ñâåðòûâàíèå äåìîêðàòè÷åñêèõ èíñòèòóòîâ, áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûå ëèäåðû îòêðûòî ïðèçâàëè Ïóòèíà ïðîèãíîðèðîâàòü êîíñòèòóöèîííûé çàïðåò è îñòàòüñÿ â äîëæíîñòè ïîñëå îêîí÷àíèÿ ïîëíîìî÷èé â ñëåäóþùåì ãîäó.

"Èäåîëîãèè áîëüøå íåò, åñòü áèçíåñ", – îáúÿñíÿåò Ñàòàíîâñêèé.

Ìàñøòàáû èçìåíåíèé çà ïîñëåäíèé ãîä ñòàëè î÷åâèäíû.  èþíå Ðîññèÿ íàêîíåö ñîãëàñèëàñü îáñóæäàòü â Ñîâåòå Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ âîïðîñ î ïðîòèâîäåéñòâèè èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå. Îíà ïîääåðæàëà îáåùàíèÿ ïðåäîñòàâèòü Èðàíó ðÿä òîðãîâûõ è ïðî÷èõ óñòóïîê (â òîì ÷èñëå îðãàíèçîâàòü ïðÿìûå ïåðåãîâîðû ñ ÑØÀ), åñëè Òåãåðàí îñòàíîâèò ðàáîòû ïî îáîãàùåíèþ óðàíà. Íî Ðîññèÿ îäíîâðåìåííî äàëà ïîíÿòü, ÷òî íå ïîääåðæèò êàêèå-ëèáî ìåðû ïðîòèâ èðàíñêîé ýêîíîìèêè èëè ïîòåíöèàëüíûå âîåííûå äåéñòâèÿ.

À ñïóñòÿ äâå íåäåëè, íà ñàììèòå "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãå Ïóòèí, âïåðâûå ïðèíèìàâøèé ïîäîáíóþ âñòðå÷ó, âçÿë íà ñåáÿ ðîëü ëèäåðà, êîòîðûé íàìåðåí âûðàáîòàòü ñîâìåñòíûé îòâåò ñòðàí íà âñïûõíóâøóþ âîéíó â Ëèâàíå. Ïî ñëîâàì ëèö, çíàêîìûõ ñ ïîäðîáíîñòÿìè ñàììèòà, îí íàïîìíèë, ÷òî ïîñëå ïðèõîäà ê âëàñòè â 2000 ãîäó åìó ïðèøëîñü ñòîëêíóòüñÿ ñ âûñòóïëåíèåì èñëàìèñòîâ (êàê ïðîèñõîäÿùåå íàçûâàåò Êðåìëü) â ×å÷íå è àãîíèçèðóþùåé ýêîíîìèêîé. Îáåùàíèÿ ïîìîùè ñî ñòîðîíû ïàðòíåðîâ ïî "âîñüìåðêå" âî ìíîãîì îêàçàëèñü ëèøü ñëîâàìè – ãîðàçäî àêòèâíåå çâó÷àëà êðèòèêà æåñòîêîñòè ðîññèÿí â ×å÷íå. Áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûå ñòðàíû ïîâåëè ñåáÿ áîëåå ïðèâåòëèâî, íàïðàâèâ ñâîèõ íàáëþäàòåëåé íà âûáîðû, ïðîâåäåííûå ïîñëå òîãî, êàê áîè óòèõëè. Îòìåòèâ, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü íàñåëåíèÿ Ðîññèè ñîñòàâëÿþò ìóñóëüìàíå, à ãðàíèöû ñòðàíû ïðîõîäÿò íåäàëåêî îò Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà, Ïóòèí çàÿâèë, ÷òî ïîääåðæèò ïîçèöèþ "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" ïî Áëèæíåìó Âîñòîêó òîëüêî â òîì ñëó÷àå, åñëè ýòî "íè íà éîòó" íå óõóäøèò îòíîøåíèÿ Ìîñêâû ñ èñëàìñêèì ìèðîì.

Ñèòóàöèÿ åùå áîëåå îáîñòðèëàñü â ñåíòÿáðå, êîãäà Ðîññèÿ, Êèòàé, Ôðàíöèÿ, Âåëèêîáðèòàíèÿ, ÑØÀ è Ãåðìàíèÿ íà÷àëè ðàáîòó íàä ïðîåêòîì ðåçîëþöèè ÎÎÍ ïî Èðàíó. Ðîññèÿ çàíÿëà òâåðäóþ ïîçèöèþ, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî ñàíêöèè äîëæíû êàñàòüñÿ ëèøü ïîñòóïëåíèÿ â ñòðàíó ñåêðåòíûõ ÿäåðíûõ òåõíîëîãèé è íå çàòðàãèâàòü èðàíñêóþ ýêîíîìèêó áîëåå øèðîêî. Êðîìå òîãî, Ìîñêâà íàñòàèâàëà, ÷òîáû ðåçîëþöèÿ íå ñîçäàâàëà íèêàêèõ ïðåïÿòñòâèé åå ðàáîòàì íà àòîìíîé ýëåêòðîñòàíöèè â Áóøåðå.

Áîëåå æåñòêèå ìåðû

Èçíà÷àëüíî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà ñòðåìèëàñü ïðîòîëêíóòü ãîðàçäî áîëåå æåñòêèé íàáîð ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ñàíêöèé, äàæå åñëè áû ýòî îçíà÷àëî, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ è Êèòàé èõ íå ïîääåðæàò. Îäíàêî â ðåçóëüòàòå Ðîññèÿ ñìîãëà ìèíèìèçèðîâàòü ñàíêöèè ÎÎÍ è âûâåñòè èç-ïîä íèõ ðàáîòû â Áóøåðå.

Íåñìîòðÿ íà ïîçèöèþ ÑØÀ è áîëüøèíñòâà åâðîïåéñêèõ ñòðàí, Êðåìëü ïîñòîÿííî çàÿâëÿåò, ÷òî Èðàí íå îáÿçàòåëüíî ñòðåìèòñÿ ê ñîçäàíèþ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ. Ðîññèéñêèå âëàñòè ãîâîðÿò, ÷òî îíè æåñòêî îãðàíè÷èâàþò ïîñòàâëÿåìûå Èðàíó âèäû âîîðóæåíèÿ, íàïðèìåð, îòêàçûâàÿñü ïîñòàâëÿòü ïåðåíîñíûå ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíûå êîìïëåêñû, êîòîðûìè ïðåäïî÷èòàþò ïîëüçîâàòüñÿ òåððîðèñòû.

Êðîìå òîãî, ïî ñëîâàì ðÿäà çàïàäíûõ äèïëîìàòîâ, Êðåìëü îò÷àñòè èñïîëüçóåò ïðîåêò â Áóøåðå äëÿ äàâëåíèÿ íà Òåãåðàí ïî ïîâîäó ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû. Ïóáëè÷íî ðîññèéñêèå âëàñòè îòðèöàþò âñÿêóþ ñâÿçü ìåæäó ýòèìè ñîáûòèÿìè, îäíàêî, â òî âðåìÿ êàê Èðàí óïîðíî çàÿâëÿåò î ñòðåìëåíèè îáîãàùàòü óðàí, Ìîñêâà ïîñòîÿííî îòêëàäûâàåò ïîñòàâêè òîïëèâà äëÿ ðåàêòîðà. Íå äàëåå ÷åì íà ïðîøëîé íåäåëå ðîññèéñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè çàÿâèëè, ÷òî ïðîáëåìû ñ îïëàòîé ñî ñòîðîíû Èðàíà (Òåãåðàí îòðèöàåò, ÷òî îíè èìåëè ìåñòî) ïðèâåäóò ê î÷åðåäíîé çàäåðæêå.

Êîãäà â ïðîøëîì ãîäó Êðåìëü ïðåäëîæèë êîìïðîìèññíîå ðåøåíèå, ïî êîòîðîìó Èðàí áóäåò îñóùåñòâëÿòü âàæíûå îïåðàöèè ñ óðàíîâûì òîïëèâîì ëèøü ñîâìåñòíî ñ Ðîññèåé, Èðàí ïðîèãíîðèðîâàë äàííîå ïðåäëîæåíèå. Ýòî ïîäòîëêíóëî Ðîññèþ ïðîãîëîñîâàòü çà ñàíêöèè â ÎÎÍ, ÷òî âûçâàëî â Òåãåðàíå óäèâëåíèå. "Îíè äî êîíöà íàäåÿëèñü, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ áëîêèðóåò ðåøåíèå èëè íàëîæèò âåòî, – îáúÿñíÿåò Ðàäæàá Ñàôàðîâ, äèðåêòîð Ðîññèéñêî-èðàíñêîãî äåëîâîãî ñîâåòà â Ìîñêâå. – Îíè áûëè â óæàñå".

Îäíàêî ñåé÷àñ Ðîññèÿ ñòîëü æå ñòðåìèòåëüíî ïûòàåòñÿ âîññòàíîâèòü ñâÿçè ñ Òåãåðàíîì, îñóùåñòâëÿÿ âèçèòû íà âûñîêîì óðîâíå è ïîñòàâëÿÿ åìó ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíûå ðàêåòû.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 2 2007, 17:06:46     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/inotheme/2007/02/26/12:26:58/iran

ÑØÀ è Èðàí äåìîíñòðèðóþò ãîòîâíîñòü ê âîéíå


Çàïàäíûå ÑÌÈ â ïîíåäåëüíèê ïèøóò î ñèòóàöèè âîêðóã Èðàíà. Íàêàíóíå ñòàëî èçâåñòíî î çàïóñêå Èðàíîì êîñìè÷åñêîé ðàêåòû è î òîì, ÷òî ÑØÀ ïðîäîëæàþò ïîäãîòîâêó ê âîçìîæíîé âîéíå.

Àìåðèêàíñêàÿ ãàçåòà The International Herald Tribune â ñòàòüå "Íàêàíóíå âñòðå÷è êðóïíåéøèõ äåðæàâ Èðàí äåìîíñòðèðóåò íåïîâèíîâåíèå" ïèøåò: â òî âðåìÿ êàê øåñòü êðóïíåéøèõ ìèðîâûõ äåðæàâ ãîòîâÿòñÿ â ïîíåäåëüíèê âûðàáîòàòü îòâåò íà èðàíñêèå äåéñòâèÿ ïî îáîãàùåíèþ óðàíà, ïðåçèäåíò Èðàíà îòêàçûâàåòñÿ îòñòóïàòü èëè îïðàâäûâàòüñÿ.  âîñêðåñåíüå îí çàÿâèë, ÷òî ÿäåðíàÿ ïðîãðàììà íå èìååò "çàäíåãî õîäà".

Ãîññåêðåòàðü ÑØÀ Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ ïàðèðîâàëà ñëîâà ïðåçèäåíòà Ìàõìóäà Àõìàäèíåæàäà ïðîñòî: "Èì íå íóæåí çàäíèé õîä. Èì íóæåí ñòîï-êðàí".

Ãîññåêðåòàðü ïîä÷åðêíóëà, ÷òî îíà ëè÷íî ãîòîâà ê ïåðåãîâîðàì íà âûñîêîì óðîâíå – â ëþáîé ìîìåíò, â ëþáîå âðåìÿ, ïî ëþáîìó âîïðîñó – äëÿ ýòîãî Òåãåðàíó äîñòàòî÷íî ïðèîñòàíîâèòü ñâîè ÿäåðíûå ðàçðàáîòêè. "ß ãîòîâà âñòðåòèòüñÿ ñî ñâîèì êîëëåãîé èëè ñ èðàíñêèì ïðåäñòàâèòåëåì â ëþáîå âðåìÿ, åñëè Èðàí ïðåêðàòèò äåÿòåëüíîñòü ïî îáîãàùåíèþ è ðåãåíåðàöèè, – ñîîáùèëà Ðàéñ êàíàëó ABC. – Ýòî ñòàíåò ÷åòêèì çíàêîì".

Õîòÿ Ðàéñ, ñóäÿ ïî âñåìó, íàìåðåâàëàñü äîíåñòè äî Òåãåðàíà, ÷òî åùå íå ïîçäíî íà÷àòü ïåðåãîâîðû äëÿ óëó÷øåíèÿ îòíîøåíèé ñ Çàïàäîì, âèöå-ïðåçèäåíò ÑØÀ Äèê ×åéíè â ñóááîòó çàÿâèë, ÷òî ÿäåðíûå àìáèöèè Èðàíà íåîáõîäèìî îáóçäàòü.

Ðàññìàòðèâàþòñÿ "âñå âîçìîæíîñòè", ñêàçàë îí, íàõîäÿñü â Àâñòðàëèè. Ïîäîáíîå âûðàæåíèå çàñòàâëÿåò ïðåäïîëîæèòü âåðîÿòíîñòü âîåííîãî óäàðà. Ïî ñëîâàì ×åéíè, ïîçâîëèòü Èðàíó ñîçäàâàòü ÿäåðíîå îðóæèå áóäåò "ñåðüåçíîé îøèáêîé". Îäíàêî îí ïîä÷åðêíóë, ÷òî âñå åùå ñ÷èòàåò âîçìîæíûì äèïëîìàòè÷åñêîå ðåøåíèå.

Ðàíåå íåçàâèñèìî äðóã îò äðóãà àìåðèêàíñêàÿ è áðèòàíñêàÿ ïðåññà ñîîáùèëè, ÷òî Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû ïëàíèðóþò âîçìîæíûå áîìáàðäèðîâêè ÿäåðíûõ îáúåêòîâ â Èðàíå. Îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà â ÑØÀ îòðèöàþò ýòè ñîîáùåíèÿ.  ïðîøåäøèå âûõîäíûå æóðíàë New Yorker ñîîáùèë, ÷òî Ïåíòàãîí ïëàíèðóåò áîìáàðäèðîâêè, êîòîðûå ìîãóò íà÷àòüñÿ â òå÷åíèå äíÿ ïîñëå ïîëó÷åíèÿ ïðèêàçà îò ïðåçèäåíòà Äæîðäæà Áóøà.

Ñòàòüÿ èç New Yorker Ñåéìóðà Õåðøà, àâòîðà ìíîãèõ æóðíàëèñòñêèõ ðàññëåäîâàíèé, ññûëàåòñÿ íà íåíàçâàííûå èñòî÷íèêè â ðàçâåäêå ÑØÀ. Ïî èõ äàííûì, Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû ðàñøèðèëè ñâîþ òàéíóþ äåÿòåëüíîñòü â Èðàíå, ÷òîáû îïðåäåëèòü âîçìîæíûå öåëè è "óñòàíîâèòü êîíòàêòû ñ àíòèïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûìè ãðóïïàìè ýòíè÷åñêèõ ìåíüøèíñòâ".

Ïåíòàãîí êàòåãîðè÷åñêè îòâåðã çàÿâëåíèÿ, ïðèâåäåííûå â ñòàòüå Õåðøà, çàÿâèâ: "Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû íå ïëàíèðóåò íà÷èíàòü âîéíó ñ Èðàíîì. Ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ îá ýòîì ïîïðîñòó íå ñîîòâåòñòâóþò äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè, ââîäÿò â çàáëóæäåíèå è ÿâëÿþòñÿ ÷üèì-òî çëûì óìûñëîì".

Áðèòàíñêàÿ The Times óêàçûâàåò, ÷òî íåêîòîðûå ïðåäñòàâèòåëè âûñøåãî âîåííîãî êîìàíäîâàíèÿ àðìèè ÑØÀ ãîòîâû óéòè â îòñòàâêó, åñëè Áåëûé äîì îòäàñò ïðèêàç î âîåííîì óäàðå ïî Èðàíó. Îá ýòîì ãîâîðÿò âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûå èñòî÷íèêè â áðèòàíñêîì îáîðîííîì è ðàçâåäûâàòåëüíîì âåäîìñòâå.

The Sunday Times óäàëîñü âûÿñíèòü, ÷òî ÷óòü ëè íå ïÿòü ãåíåðàëîâ è àäìèðàëîâ ãîòîâû ñêîðåå óéòè â îòñòàâêó, ÷åì îäîáðèòü íàïàäåíèå, êîòîðîå ïðåäñòàâëÿåòñÿ èì áåçðàññóäíûì. "Ìû çíàåì, ÷òî ÷åòûðå èëè ïÿòü ãåíåðàëîâ è àäìèðàëîâ ïîäàäóò â îòñòàâêó, åñëè Áóø ïðèêàæåò àòàêîâàòü Èðàí, – çàÿâèë èñòî÷íèê, áëèçêèé áðèòàíñêîé ðàçâåäêå. – Ïåíòàãîí ïðîñòî íå â ñîñòîÿíèè îñóùåñòâèòü òàêóþ àòàêó, ìíîãèå ñîìíåâàþòñÿ â åå ýôôåêòèâíîñòè è äàæå âîçìîæíîñòè".

Èñòî÷íèê â áðèòàíñêîì îáîðîííîì âåäîìñòâå ïîäòâåðäèë, ÷òî âíóòðè Ïåíòàãîíà âîåííûé óäàð ïî Èðàíó âûçûâàåò ñàìûå äóðíûå ïðåä÷óâñòâèÿ. "Âñå ãåíåðàëû ÿñíî äàþò ïîíÿòü, ÷òî ó íèõ íåò âîåííûõ ñðåäñòâ, ÷òîáû îäåðæàòü áîëåå èëè ìåíåå óáåäèòåëüíóþ ïîáåäó íàä Èðàíîì. Íèêòî íå õî÷åò ââÿçûâàòüñÿ â ýòî, äëÿ íèõ ýòî âîïðîñ ñîâåñòè".

Áóíò ãåíåðàëîâ â òàêîì ìàñøòàáå áûë áû ñîáûòèåì áåñïðåöåäåíòíûì. "Àìåðèêàíñêèå ãåíåðàëû ïðèâûêëè ñòîÿòü è ñðàæàòüñÿ äî êîíöà", – ñêàçàë èñòî÷íèê â Ïåíòàãîíå. Ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Ðîáåðò Ãåéòñ íåîäíîêðàòíî ïðåäîñòåðåãàë îò íàïàäåíèÿ íà Èðàí. Ñ÷èòàåòñÿ, ÷òî îí ïðåäñòàâëÿåò òî÷êó çðåíèÿ âûñøåãî êîìàíäîâàíèÿ.

Èçäàíèå Sueddeutsche Zeitung îòìå÷àåò, ÷òî "Èðàí çàÿâëÿåò î ñâîåé ãîòîâíîñòè ê âîéíå".

Èðàí "ãîòîâ ê âîéíå", çàÿâèë çàìåñòèòåëü ìèíèñòðà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Èðàíà Ìàíó÷åõð Ìîõàììàäè â èíòåðâüþ èíôîðìàãåíòñòâó Isna. Äàëüíåéøèå ñàíêöèè íå çàñòàâÿò Èñëàìñêóþ ðåñïóáëèêó îñòàíîâèòü ðàáîòû ïî ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå. Òàêóþ æå ðåøèòåëüíîñòü â ÿäåðíîì âîïðîñå ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàë è ïðåçèäåíò Ìàõìóä Àõìàäèíåæàä, çàÿâèâ î òîì, ÷òî Èðàí â ýòîì âîïðîñå ïîõîæ íà ïîåçä "áåç òîðìîçîâ è îáðàòíîãî õîäà".

Èòàëüÿíñêàÿ ãàçåòà La Stampa â ñòàòüå "Áóø äåëàåò ñòàâêó íà ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé ïåðåâîðîò" ïèøåò î òîì, ÷òî Äæîðäæ Áóø "çàéìåòñÿ Èðàíîì, ïðåæäå ÷åì ïîêèíóòü Áåëûé äîì". Èçäàíèå òàêæå öèòèðóþò ñòàòüþ Ñåéìóðà Õåðøà èç èç New Yorker.

Äæîðäæ Áóø, êîòîðûé íàçâàë ñåáÿ çàùèòíèêîì Àìåðèêè îò íîâûõ 11 ñåíòÿáðÿ, íå ìîæåò îñòàâèòü ïðååìíèêó óãðîçó â âèäå àòîìíîãî îðóæèÿ, êîòîðîå Òåãåðàí ñïîñîáåí ïåðåäàòü òåððîðèñòàì äëÿ íàíåñåíèÿ óäàðà ïî Ñîåäèíåííûì Øòàòàì, ïèøåò ãàçåòà è âûäåëÿåò íåñêîëüêî âîçìîæíûõ ñöåíàðèÿ ðàçâèòèÿ ñîáûòèé.

Ïåðâûé âàðèàíò ïðåäëîæåí íåêîíñåðâàòîðàìè èç American Enterprise Institute, ïîääåðæèâàþùèìè èäåþ î ïðåäîñòàâëåíèè áîëåå ìàñøòàáíîé ïîìîùè âíóòðåííèì ïðîòèâíèêàì èðàíñêîãî ðåæèìà, êîòîðûå áû ìîãëè ñîâåðøèòü ìèðíóþ ðåâîëþöèþ, íàïîäîáèå èìåâøèõ ìåñòî íà Óêðàèíå, â Ãðóçèè, Ëèâàíå è Êèðãèçèè, ñïîñîáíóþ âûíóäèòü Àõìàäèíåæàäà áåæàòü. Ïðè ýòîì ãëàâíàÿ ñòàâêà äåëàåòñÿ íà ñòðåìëåíèå èðàíöåâ ê ñâîáîäå è íà ñïëî÷åííîñòü ñòóäåíòîâ è ïðîôñîþçíûõ îðãàíèçàöèé. Ýòî áûë áû ëó÷øèé ñöåíàðèé äëÿ Áåëîãî äîìà, íî, êàê íàïèñàë â ñâîåé ñòàòüå "Ïåðñèäñêèé ïàççë" Êåí Ïîëëàê, âîïðîñ çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â òîì, "÷òî áóäåò ðàíüøå, ðåâîëþöèÿ èëè áîìáà".

Âòîðîé âàðèàíò – äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèé, åãî ïîðó÷åíî ðåàëèçîâûâàòü Êîíäîëèçå Ðàéñ, êîòîðîé óæå óäàëîñü äîáèòüñÿ åäèíîäóøíîé ïîääåðæêè ðåçîëþöèè 1737 â Ñîâåòå Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ.  ðåçóëüòàòå íîâûõ ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñàíêöèè ìîãóò áûòü óæåñòî÷åíû, íî ïîëîæèòåëüíûé ðåçóëüòàò ïî óêðåïëåíèþ çíà÷èìîñòè ãîëîñà ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ñîîáùåñòâà óæå ñêîìïðîìåòèðîâàí òâåðäûì íàìåðåíèåì Èðàíà ñëåäîâàòü íàìå÷åííûì êóðñîì.

Ïîñêîëüêó àìåðèêàíñêèé ïðåçèäåíò âðÿä ëè ñäåëàåò ñòàâêó íà ðåâîëþöèþ èëè áóäåò ðàññ÷èòûâàòü íà óñïåõ äèïëîìàòè÷åñêîãî âàðèàíòà, Áóø ìîæåò âûáðàòü òðåòèé âàðèàíò – ïîâòîðåíèå "Îïåðàöèè Àÿêñ", â ðåçóëüòàòå êîòîðîé â 1953 ãîäó áûë ñâåðãíóò Ìîõàììåä Ìîññàäåê (ñòîðîííèê íåéòðàëüíîé ïîëèòèêè, áëèçêîé ê ïîëèòèêå Ìîñêâû) è ê âëàñòè ïðèøåë Ðåçà Ïåõëåâè, øàõ Èðàíà, êîòîðûé ñòàë âåðíûì ñîþçíèêîì Âàøèíãòîíà. Ìîññàäåê áûë ñâåðãíóò â õîäå ñîâìåñòíîé àìåðèêàíî-áðèòàíñêîé îïåðàöèè â äóõå õîëîäíîé âîéíû, è òî, ÷òî â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ ïðîèñõîäèò â Èðàíå è âîêðóã íåãî, ñâèäåòåëüñòâóåò: êðóïíîìàñøòàáíàÿ îïåðàöèÿ óæå íà÷àëàñü. Âçÿòü õîòÿ áû òàêèå ôàêòû, êàê àðåñòû ÷ëåíîâ ÊÑÈÐ â Ýðáèëå, ïðîòèâîñòîÿíèå àìåðèêàíñêèõ è èðàíñêèõ êîðâåòîâ â Ïåðñèäñêîì çàëèâå, ñóííèòñêèå òåðàêòû â Áåëóäæèñòàíå. Ðàñòåò ÷èñëî ýïèçîäîâ, íàïîìèíàþùèõ íåîáúÿâëåííûå ãðÿçíûå âîéíû, êîòîðûå âåëè ÑØÀ è ÑÑÑÐ çà âëèÿíèå â Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêå, Àôðèêå è Àçèè.

Ïðåçèäåíò ÑØÀ ìîæåò ïðèáåãíóòü è ê ÷åòâåðòîìó âàðèàíòó – óäàðàì ñèëàìè ÂÂÑ è ÂÌÑ ïî àòîìíûì îáúåêòàì, ÷òîáû îòáðîñèòü ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó Èðàíà íà 5-10 ëåò íàçàä, ÷òî ïîçâîëèò ïðååìíèêó Áóøà ñïîêîéíî ðàçáèðàòüñÿ ñ ýòèì êðèçèñîì. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, âîåííàÿ ãðóïïèðîâêà ÑØÀ ðàçìåùåíà â Ïåðñèäñêîì çàëèâå äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ äâóõ çàäà÷: óñèëåíèå äàâëåíèÿ ñ òåì, ÷òîáû â Òåãåðàíå ïðîèçîøåë ïåðåâîðîò, à åñëè ýòîìó ïåðåâîðîòó ñóæäåíî ïðîâàëèòüñÿ, òî äëÿ îñóùåñòâëåíèÿ â òå÷åíèå 24 ÷àñîâ áëèöîïåðàöèè – èìåííî òàê, êàê î íåé ðàññêàçûâàåò Õåðø â ñâîåé ñòàòüå â New Yorker.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 18 2007, 17:07:22     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/inotheme/2007/11/16/11:38:56/iran
Ñóäüáó Èðàíà ðåøèò Àìåðèêà, à íå ÌÀÃÀÒÝ
Îáçîð ïðåññû

Ñåãîäíÿ ìèðîâàÿ ïðåññà îáñóæäàåò äîêëàä Ìóõàììåäà àëü-Áàðàäåè, ãåíåðàëüíîãî äèðåêòîðà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ïî èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå. Ïîäòâåðæäåííîå íàëè÷èå òðåõ òûñÿ÷ öåíòðèôóã ïî îáîãàùåíèþ óðàíà ïðèáëèæàåò ìîìåíò èñòèíû äëÿ àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà, êîòîðîé ïðåäñòîèò ñäåëàòü âûáîð – íà÷èíàòü âîåííûå äåéñòâèÿ èëè ñìèðèòüñÿ ñ ñóùåñòâîâàíèåì ÿäåðíîãî Èðàíà, ñ÷èòàþò íàáëþäàòåëè.

Áðèòàíñêàÿ The Guardian îçàãëàâèëà ñâîé êîììåíòàðèé "ÑØÀ ïîðà ðåøàòü, ÷òî äåëàòü ñ èðàíñêîé óãðîçîé".

Äîêëàä ãåíåðàëüíîãî äèðåêòîðà Ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî àãåíòñòâà ïî àòîìíîé ýíåðãèè (ÌÀÃÀÒÝ) âûçîâåò óñèëåíèå íàæèìà ñî ñòîðîíû ÑØÀ è Åâðîïû, êîòîðûå äîáèâàþòñÿ óæåñòî÷åíèÿ ñàíêöèé. Âíîâü ïîäíèìóòñÿ ðàçãîâîðû î âîçìîæíîì âîîðóæåííîì êîíôëèêòå, óòâåðæäàåò èçäàíèå. ÌÀÃÀÒÝ ñîîáùàåò, ÷òî ñåé÷àñ óðàí îáîãàùàþò èñêëþ÷èòåëüíî äî ñîñòîÿíèÿ òîïëèâà (4%), íî ïîäòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî Òåãåðàí ñîçäàë 3 òûñ. öåíòðèôóã. Ýòî ïðèáëèæàåò ìîìåíò èñòèíû äëÿ àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà, êîãäà ïðåäñòîèò ñäåëàòü âûáîð – íà÷èíàòü ëè âîåííûå äåéñòâèÿ èëè îòêàçàòüñÿ îò ïðåæíèõ óñëîâèé è ïðèíÿòü òîò ôàêò, ÷òî Èðàí òåõíè÷åñêè ñïîñîáåí îáîãàùàòü óðàí.

Àìåðèêàíñêèå ãåíåðàëû, êàê ñîîáùàåòñÿ, ïðåäóïðåäèëè Áåëûé äîì, ÷òî âîåííûé óäàð ñïðîâîöèðóåò ìîùíûé èðàíñêèé îòâåò, êîòîðûé ñêàæåòñÿ è íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, è çà åãî ïðåäåëàìè.

Ðîññèéñêèå îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà â÷åðà ïðèçâàëè ê òåðïåíèþ, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî Èðàí âñå åùå ìîæåò ïîéòè íà ñäåëêó ñ ìåæäóíàðîäíûì ñîîáùåñòâîì â áëèæàéøèå íåäåëè. Îíè óêàçàëè íà òå ôðàãìåíòû äîêëàäà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ãäå ãîâîðèòñÿ, ÷òî Òåãåðàí ïîøåë íà ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî ñ èíñïåêòîðàìè àãåíòñòâà ïî äðóãèì ÿäåðíûì âîïðîñàì.

Ïðåçèäåíò Èðàíà Ìàõìóä Àõìàäèíåæàä òàêæå ïîïûòàëñÿ èñïîëüçîâàòü â êà÷åñòâå îïðàâäàíèÿ äëÿ Òåãåðàíà ïîçèòèâíóþ ÷àñòü äîêëàäà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ãäå îòìå÷àåòñÿ âîçðîñøåå ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî èðàíñêîé ñòîðîíû ñ èíñïåêòîðàìè.

 ýòîé îïàñíîé ñèòóàöèè, ñîîáùàåò èçäàíèå, çàïëàíèðîâàííàÿ íà ïîíåäåëüíèê âñòðå÷à âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûõ ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé ïÿòè ïîñòîÿííûõ ÷ëåíîâ Ñîâåòà Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ è Ãåðìàíèè, ãäå ïðåäñòîÿëî ðåøèòü âîïðîñ î ñàíêöèÿõ, áûëà îòëîæåíà. Ýòà âàæíåéøàÿ âñòðå÷à ñîñòîèòñÿ â íîÿáðå, íî ïîçäíåå.  ðåçóëüòàòå ãëàâíûé äèïëîìàò "øåñòåðêè", âåðõîâíûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü ÅÑ ïî âíåøíåé ïîëèòèêå Õàâüåð Ñîëàíà èìååò âîçìîæíîñòü ïðîâåñòè ïîñëåäíèå, îêîí÷àòåëüíûå ïåðåãîâîðû ñ Òåãåðàíîì.

"Âàøèíãòîí èãðàåò â ïðèìèðåíèå", ïîëàãàåò øâåéöàðñêàÿ Le Temps. Ïðèãðîçèâ Èðàíó "òðåòüåé ìèðîâîé âîéíîé", Áóø ïðèêàçàë ãåíåðàëàì èãðàòü îòáîé, ïèøåò ãàçåòà. Íàêàíóíå ïóáëèêàöèè äîêëàäà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ ïîâñþäó ðàçäàâàëèñü ãîëîñà, ïðèçûâàþùèå "áàðàáàíû âîéíû ê ìîë÷àíèþ". Íåèçáåæíàÿ àòàêà íà èðàíñêèå ÿäåðíûå îáúåêòû? "Òîëüêî â êðàéíåì ñëó÷àå", – îáúÿñíèë íà ýòîé íåäåëå êîìàíäóþùèé àìåðèêàíñêèìè âîåííûìè îïåðàöèÿìè íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå àäìèðàë Óèëüÿì Ôýëëîí. "Ìû ñîñðåäîòî÷èì íàøè óñèëèÿ íà äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèõ è ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ñàíêöèÿõ", – ïîäòâåðäèë Ïåíòàãîí, ãëàâà êîòîðîãî Ðîáåðò Ãåéòñ âñåãäà äåéñòâîâàë ñäåðæàííåå õîçÿèíà Áåëîãî äîìà.

Îòíîñèòåëüíîãî "ïðîãðåññà", î êîòîðîì ãîâîðèòñÿ â äîêëàäå ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ìàëîâàòî äëÿ îáúÿñíåíèÿ ýòîé äâîéíîé ëîãèêè, ïèøåò èçäàíèå. Íàïðîòèâ, îíà áîëüøå íàïîìèíàåò õîðîøî îáêàòàííóþ ñòðàòåãèþ "äîáðîãî è çëîãî ïîëèöåéñêîãî": óñèëèòü äàâëåíèå íà òåãåðàíñêèé ðåæèì, îäíîâðåìåííî ïîêàçàâ åìó, ÷òî âûõîä âñå åùå åñòü. Ýòà íåìóäðåíàÿ èãðà ñòàëà åùå áîëåå óáåäèòåëüíîé ïîñëå òîãî, êàê ê àäìèíèñòðàöèè ïðèøëî ïîíèìàíèå, ÷òî ñîþçíèêè – Íèêîëÿ Ñàðêîçè è Àíãåëà Ìåðêåëü – òîæå ãîòîâû â íåå ñûãðàòü.

Âîåííûå ýêñïåðòû êàòåãîðè÷íû â ñâîèõ îöåíêàõ: åñëè áû óäàëîñü íà êàêîå-òî âðåìÿ ïðåñå÷ü èðàíñêèå ÿäåðíûå àìáèöèè, ïîòðåáíîñòü â àìåðèêàíñêèõ "òî÷å÷íûõ óäàðàõ" ïðîïàëà áû íà äîëãîå âðåìÿ. Íå ïðåäñòàâëÿÿ îïàñíîñòè èðàíñêîìó ðåæèìó, ýòè óäàðû ëèøü áóäóò ñïîñîáñòâîâàòü åãî êîíñîëèäàöèè. Ñ ïîìîùüþ ëèâàíñêîé "Õèçáàëëû" è, â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü, ïîääåðæèâàåìûõ ðåæèìîì øèèòñêèõ âîîðóæåííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé â Èðàêå Èðàí âïîëíå ñïîñîáåí ñäåëàòü ñèòóàöèþ â ðåãèîíå íåâûíîñèìîé äëÿ ÑØÀ.

The Wall Street Journal ïîäâåðãàåò ñîìíåíèþ "Õîðîøåå ïîâåäåíèå ìóëë". Èòàê, Èðàí âûäàë ñâîè ïëàíû ïî ïåðåïëàâêå óðàíà â ÿäåðíûå áîåãîëîâêè, ïèøåò èçäàíèå. Åñëè âû óïóñòèëè ýòó ëþáîïûòíóþ äåòàëü, ïîñìîòðèòå âãëóáü ñåãîäíÿøíèõ çàãîëîâêîâ î òîì, ÷òî Èñëàìñêàÿ ðåñïóáëèêà "â öåëîì ãîâîðèò ïðàâäó" î ñâîåé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå, èäÿ íà ðàçëè÷íûå øàãè, ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþùèå î æåëàíèè ñîòðóäíè÷àòü ñ ÌÀÃÀÒÝ. Ïîõîæå, èðàíöû âñåãî ëèøü ðàññêàçàëè ÌÀÃÀÒÝ òî, ÷òî òàì è òàê óæå çíàëè.

Íåñìîòðÿ íà ïðèçíàêè õîðîøåãî ïîâåäåíèÿ ìóëë, â äîêëàäå òàêæå îòìå÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî "ñ íà÷àëà 2006 ãîäà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ ïåðåñòàëî ïîëó÷àòü íåêîòîðûå äàííûå, êîòîðûå Èðàí ïðåäîñòàâëÿë åìó ðàíåå...  ðåçóëüòàòå óðîâåíü èíôîðìèðîâàííîñòè ÌÀÃÀÒÝ ïî ïîâîäó ñîñòîÿíèÿ èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû ñíèæàåòñÿ".

Ïî êðàéíåé ìåðå, îá îäíîì ýòîò äîêóìåíò ãîâîðèò îäíîçíà÷íî, óêàçûâàåò èçäàíèå: â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ Èðàí îáîãàùàåò óðàí, èñïîëüçóÿ ïðè ýòîì íè áîëüøå, íè ìåíüøå, êàê 2952 öåíòðèôóãè, òî åñòü íàðóøàÿ äâà çàêîííûõ òðåáîâàíèÿ Ñîâáåçà ÎÎÍ. Èç ýòîãî ñëåäóåò, ÷òî Èðàí çà îäèí òîëüêî ïðîøëûé ãîä óâåëè÷èë ñâîè îáîãàòèòåëüíûå ìîùíîñòè â 18 ðàç. ÎÎÍ ñ åå äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèìè óñèëèÿìè íèêîãäà íå ïîñïåòü çà òàêèìè òåìïàìè. Åñëè óñèëèÿ ÑØÀ è ñòðàí Åâðîïû íè ê ÷åìó íå ïðèâåäóò, ÷åðåç ãîä ìû íàïèøåì î íîâîì 18-êðàòíîì óâåëè÷åíèè ýòèõ ìîùíîñòåé, – åñëè íå î ÷åì-íèáóäü åùå áîëåå âçðûâîîïàñíîì, çàêëþ÷àåò WSJ.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 27 2007, 15:42:32     :

http://www.newsru.com/russia/26dec2007/c300ir.html
Ðîññèÿ ïîñòàâèò Èðàíó íåñêîëüêî äåñÿòêîâ êîìïëåêñîâ Ñ-300
âðåìÿ ïóáëèêàöèè: 26 äåêàáðÿ 2007 ã., 13:53

Èðàí óòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî äîãîâîðèëñÿ ñ Ðîññèåé î ïîñòàâêå Ñ-300
Ðîññèÿ ïîñòàâèò Èðàíó çåíèòíî-ðàêåòíûå êîìïëåêñû Ñ-300, çàÿâèë ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Èñëàìñêîé Ðåñïóáëèêè Ìîñòàôà Ìîõàììàä Íàäæàð.
Íàäæàð îòâåðã íàëè÷èå ñâÿçè ìåæäó äàííûì ñîãëàøåíèåì è èçìåíåíèÿìè â ñèòóàöèè âîêðóã èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû èëè äîêëàäîì Íàöèîíàëüíîé ðàçâåäêè ÑØÀ ïî Èðàíó

Ðîññèÿ ïîñòàâèò Èðàíó çåíèòíî-ðàêåòíûå êîìïëåêñû Ñ-300, çàÿâèë ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Èñëàìñêîé Ðåñïóáëèêè Ìîñòàôà Ìîõàììàä Íàäæàð. Èñòî÷íèê "Èíòåðôàêñà" â ðîññèéñêîì îáîðîííî-ïðîìûøëåííîì êîìïëåêñå ïîäòâåðäèë: ïîñòàâêà ñîñòîèòñÿ. " ñîîòâåòñòâèè ñ ïîäïèñàííûì íåñêîëüêî ëåò íàçàä êîíòðàêòîì Ðîññèÿ ïîñòàâèò Èðàíó íåñêîëüêî äåñÿòêîâ ÇÐÑ Ñ-300ÏÌÓ1", - ñêàçàë ñîáåñåäíèê àãåíòñòâà.

"ÇÐÊ Ñ-300 áóäóò ïîñòàâëåíû Èðàíó â ðàìêàõ äîãîâîðà, çàêëþ÷åííîãî ðàíåå ñ Ðîññèåé", - öèòèðóåò ãëàâó èðàíñêîãî îáîðîííîãî âåäîìñòâà èíôîðìàöèîííîå àãåíòñòâî FARS. Ïî åãî ñëîâàì, "ñðîêè ïîñòàâêè áóäóò îáúÿâëåíû ïîçäíåå".

Íàäæàð îòâåðã íàëè÷èå ñâÿçè ìåæäó äàííûì ñîãëàøåíèåì è èçìåíåíèÿìè â ñèòóàöèè âîêðóã èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû èëè äîêëàäîì Íàöèîíàëüíîé ðàçâåäêè ÑØÀ ïî Èðàíó, â êîòîðîì, â ÷àñòíîñòè, óêàçûâàåòñÿ, ÷òî îñåíüþ 2003 ãîäà Èðàí îñòàíîâèë ÿêîáû èìåâøóþñÿ ó íåãî ïðîãðàììó ïî ñîçäàíèþ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ.

Äèðåêòîð Ôåäåðàëüíîé ñëóæáû ïî âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîìó ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâó Ìèõàèë Äìèòðèåâ, ïðèíÿâøèé íà ïðîøëîé íåäåëå ó÷àñòèå â 4-ì çàñåäàíèè ðîññèéñêî-èðàíñêîé ìåæïðàâèòåëüñòâåííîé êîìèññèè ïî ÂÒÑ, ðàíåå çàÿâèë â èíòåðâüþ ÈÒÀÐ-ÒÀÑÑ, ÷òî "ïîñòàâêè â Èðàí çåíèòíî-ðàêåòíîãî êîìïëåêñà Ñ-300 íå îáñóæäàëèñü".

Ñïðàâêà: ÇÐÊ-300

Çåíèòíî-ðàêåòíûå êîìïëåêñû Ñ-300 (S-300) îáëàäàþò âûñîêîé ïîìåõîçàùèùåííîñòüþ è ñïîñîáíû îäíîâðåìåííî îáñòðåëèâàòü äî 24 öåëåé ñ íàâåäåíèåì íà êàæäóþ öåëü äî 2 ðàêåò ñ îäíîé ïóñêîâîé óñòàíîâêè (ÏÓ) èëè äî 4 ðàêåò ñ äâóõ ÏÓ. Âåñü ïðîöåññ áîåâîé ðàáîòû ìàêñèìàëüíî àâòîìàòèçèðîâàí.

Ñ-300 â ñîñòîÿíèè óíè÷òîæèòü âñå ñîâðåìåííûå âîçäóøíûå öåëè (ñàìîëåòû, êðûëàòûå è áàëëèñòè÷åñêèå ðàêåòû) â çîíå: ïî äàëüíîñòè 6-75 êì - àýðîäèíàìè÷åñêèå; 6-40 êì - áàëëèñòè÷åñêèå. Ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ äàëüíîñòü ïîðàæåíèÿ öåëè - 150 êì.

Åñòü íåñêîëüêî ìîäèôèêàöèé êîìïëåêñà: C-300Â, Ñ-300ÏÌÓ, C-300 ÏÌÓ-1. Âñå îíè îòëè÷àþòñÿ òîëüêî õàðàêòåðèñòèêàìè ðàêåò è âíåøíèì âèäîì òðàíñïîðòíî-ïóñêîâîãî êîíòåéíåðà. Êîìïëåêñ ðàçìåùàåòñÿ íà ãóñåíè÷íîé èëè êîëåñíîé áàçå ("Óðàë" èëè "ÌÇÊÒ") â çàâèñèìîñòè îò ìîäèôèêàöèè. Âðåìÿ ðàçâåðòûâàíèÿ êîìïëåêñà áåç ïðåäâàðèòåëüíîé ïîäãîòîâêè ñîñòàâëÿåò 5 ìèíóò.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 27 2007, 15:44:04     :

http://www.newsru.com/russia/27dec2007/iraqc300.html
Ðîññèÿ ïîìîæåò Èðàíó ñîçäàòü ñèñòåìó ÏÂÎ, îáúÿâèë ÌÈÄ


Ðîññèÿ ïîìîæåò Èðàíó ñîçäàòü ñèñòåìó ÏÂÎ, îáúÿâèë ÌÈÄ
Ðîññèÿ íàìåðåíà ñîäåéñòâîâàòü Èðàíó â ðàçâèòèè åãî ñèñòåì ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíîé îáîðîíû, îáúÿâèë â ÷åòâåðã ÌÈÄ ÐÔ
Ïî äàííûì "Êîììåðñàíòà", ðå÷ü èäåò î ïîñòàâêå Òåãåðàíó ïÿòè äèâèçèîíîâ Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-1 íà ñóììó áîëåå 800 ìèëëèîíîâ äîëëàðîâ.
Ëèâíè îòïðàâèòñÿ â ðîññèéñêóþ ñòîëèöó "íà âòîðîé íåäåëå ÿíâàðÿ"

Ðîññèÿ íàìåðåíà ñîäåéñòâîâàòü Èðàíó â ðàçâèòèè åãî ñèñòåì ïðîòèâîâîçäóøíîé îáîðîíû, îáúÿâèë â ÷åòâåðã ÌÈÄ ÐÔ, äàâ ïîíÿòü, ÷òî êîíòðàêò íà ïîñòàâêó Ñ-300, ïåðåïîëîøèâøèé íàêàíóíå âåñü ìèð, - ÷àñòü áîëüøîé ïîëèòèêè.  Ðîññèþ ñ âèçèòîì ñîáèðàåòñÿ ìèíèñòð èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Èçðàèëÿ, âïðî÷åì, ýêñïåðòû îöåíèâàþò åå øàíñû ïîâëèÿòü íà ñäåëêó êàê íåâûñîêèå, óêàçûâàåò NEWSru Israel.

"Ìû ñîòðóäíè÷àåì ñ Èðàíîì ïî ìíîãèì íàïðàâëåíèÿì, â òîì ÷èñëå â âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîé îáëàñòè. Ìû, â ÷àñòíîñòè, ïðèíèìàåì ó÷àñòèå â ðàáîòå ïî óêðåïëåíèþ ñèñòåì ÏÂÎ â Èðàíå", - ñîîáùèë â ÷åòâåðã íà ïðåññ-êîíôåðåíöèè â Ìîñêâå çàìãëàâû ÌÈÄ Ðîññèè Àëåêñàíäð Ëîñþêîâ. Ïðè ýòîì, îãîâîðèëñÿ Ëîñþêîâ, Ìîñêâà õî÷åò, "÷òîáû ðóêîâîäñòâî Èðàíà ó÷èòûâàëî îçàáî÷åííîñòè è èíòåðåñû ñîñåäíèõ ñòðàí".

- Ðîññèéñêàÿ äåëåãàöèÿ åäåò â Èðàí îáñóæäàòü ïîñòàâêè
- Â áóäóùåì ãîäó îðóæåéíûé ýêñïîðò äîñòèãíåò 7,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ

Ñàìûå ïðèìå÷àòåëüíûå öèòàòû èç ðîññèéñêîé ïðåññû ïî ýòîé òåìå ïðèâîäèò ñàéò Çàãîëîâêè.ðó.

Ïîÿâèëèñü ïåðâûå äåòàëè ïî ïîâîäó ñäåëêè. Èñïîëíèòåëåì êîíòðàêòà áóäåò âûñòóïàòü ÎÀÎ "Êîíöåðí ÏÂÎ "Àëìàç-Àíòåé". Ïî äàííûì "Êîììåðñàíòà", ðå÷ü èäåò î ïîñòàâêå Òåãåðàíó ïÿòè äèâèçèîíîâ Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-1 íà ñóììó áîëåå 800 ìèëëèîíîâ äîëëàðîâ. Ñî ññûëêîé íà èñòî÷íèê â îáîðîííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòè ÐÔ ãàçåòà ïèøåò, ÷òî êîíòðàêò íà ïîñòàâêó Ñ-300 â Èðàí åùå íå çàêëþ÷åí, õîòÿ ïåðåãîâîðû íàõîäÿòñÿ íà ôèíàëüíîé ñòàäèè. Íå èñêëþ÷åíà âîçìîæíîñòü "ïîñòàâêè Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-1 èç íàëè÷èÿ âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë ÐÔ ïîñëå íåîáõîäèìîé ìîäåðíèçàöèè".

Êàê íàïîìèíàåò "Êîììåðñàíò", êîíòàêòû Ðîññèè ñ Èðàíîì ïî âîïðîñàì âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîãî ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà àêòèâèçèðîâàëèñü åùå â íà÷àëå 2004 ãîäà. Òîãäà Òåãåðàí ïîïðîñèë Ðîññèþ îêàçàòü ñîäåéñòâèå â ñîçäàíèè êîìïëåêñíîé ñèñòåìû ÏÂÎ. Ìîñêâà ïðåäëîæèëà èñïîëüçîâàòü êîìïëåêñû Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-1 äëÿ ÏÂÎ ñòîëèöû Èðàíà, à òàêæå ïðèêðûòü ÷åòûðå ðàéîíà: âòîðîé ïî çíà÷åíèþ ïðîìûøëåííûé öåíòð ñòðàíû Èñôàõàí, ãëàâíóþ âîåííî-ìîðñêóþ áàçó â Áåíäåð-Àááàñå (Ïåðñèäñêèé çàëèâ), ÀÝÑ â Áóøåðå, à òàêæå íåôòåòåðìèíàëû â Àáàäàíå è Õîðåçìøåõðå. Îäíî âðåìÿ Èðàí âåë ïåðåãîâîðû è î çàêóïêå ñèñòåì ÏÂÎ òåàòðà âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé Ñ-300Â. Êîìïëåêñû Ñ-300 ìîãëè áûòü ïîñòàâëåíû Áåëîðóññèåé, ó êîòîðîé îíè åñòü íà âîîðóæåíèè. Âçàìåí Áåëîðóññèÿ äîëæíà áûëà ïîëó÷èòü èç Ðîññèè íîâûå ñèñòåìû îáúåêòîâîé ÏÂÎ Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-2. Îäíàêî èç-çà óõóäøåíèÿ â íà÷àëå ýòîãî ãîäà îòíîøåíèé Ìîñêâû è Ìèíñêà ýòîò âàðèàíò ñäåëêè ïåðåñòàë ðàññìàòðèâàòüñÿ.

 äåêàáðå 2005 ãîäà Ðîññèÿ çàêëþ÷èëà ñ Èðàíîì ñäåëêó íà ïîñòàâêó 29 êîìïëåêñîâ "Òîð-Ì1" (çà 700 ìèëëèîíîâ äîëëàðîâ). Ïîñòàâêà áûëà çàâåðøåíà â ÿíâàðå 2007 ãîäà. ÑØÀ âûðàçèëè "ðàçî÷àðîâàíèå" â ñâÿçè ñ ïîñòàâêàìè "Òîð-Ì1" â Èðàí, îäíàêî ýòà ðåàêöèÿ íå ñìóòèëà ðîññèéñêîå ðóêîâîäñòâî, è ïåðåãîâîðû î âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîì ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâå ñ Èðàíîì áûëè ïðîäîëæåíû.

Êîíòðàêò íà ïðîäàæó Òåãåðàíó ïÿòè äèâèçèîíîâ ÇÐÑ Ñ-300ÏÌÓ-1 äîëæíû áûëè ïîäïèñàòü â ìàðòå 2006 ãîäà. Íî â ÿíâàðå 2006 ãîäà ïåðåãîâîðû áûëè äåìîíñòðàòèâíî ïðåðâàíû Ìîñêâîé â çíàê íåñîãëàñèÿ ñ êóðñîì Òåãåðàíà ïî ÿäåðíîé ïðîáëåìå.

Ïîñòàâêè ðîññèéñêèõ Ñ-300 â Èðàí íåèçáåæíî óõóäøàò îòíîøåíèÿ ìåæäó ÑØÀ è Ðîññèåé. Ïåðâàÿ ðåàêöèÿ Áåëîãî äîìà íà â÷åðàøíåå çàÿâëåíèå ìèíèñòðà îáîðîíû Èðàíà áûëà ðåçêî íåãàòèâíîé. Ïðè ýòîì ïðåäñòàâèòåëü àäìèíèñòðàöèè ÑØÀ çàÿâèë, ÷òî ïîñòàâêè â Èðàí êîìïëåêñîâ Ñ-300 êîñâåííî íàíîñÿò óäàð è ïî Èçðàèëþ.

Ïî äàííûì NEWSru Israel, ìèíèñòð èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Ðîññèè Ñåðãåé Ëàâðîâ íàïðàâèë ãëàâå ÌÈÄ Èçðàèëÿ Öèïè Ëèâíè ïðèãëàøåíèå íà ïðèåçä â Ìîñêâó. Ëèâíè îòïðàâèòñÿ â ðîññèéñêóþ ñòîëèöó "íà âòîðîé íåäåëå ÿíâàðÿ", ïîñëå âèçèòà â Èçðàèëü ïðåçèäåíòà ÑØÀ Äæîðäæà Áóøà, íàìå÷åííîãî íà 9 ÿíâàðÿ.

Èíîïðåññà: ðîññèéñêàÿ äåëåãàöèÿ åäåò â Èðàí îáñóæäàòü ïîñòàâêè

Âîåííûå ýêñïåðòû, îïðîøåííûå ãàçåòîé The Jerusalem Post, óêàçûâàþò, ÷òî Ñ-300 ñïîñîáíû íàíåñòè çíà÷èòåëüíûé óðîí àìåðèêàíñêèì è èçðàèëüñêèì ñèëàì, åñëè òå àòàêóþò Èðàí. (Ïîëíûé òåêñò íà ñàéòå InoPressa.ru.)

Ñîîáùåíèå ïîñòóïèëî íåçàäîëãî äî ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñ Òåãåðàíîì ïî âîïðîñàì ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà, êîòîðûå Ðîññèÿ íà÷èíàåò íà ýòîé íåäåëå. Äåëåãàöèè ñòîðîí áóäóò âîçãëàâëÿòü Ìèõàèë Äìèòðèåâ, ãëàâà Ôåäåðàëüíîé ñëóæáû ïî âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîìó ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâó, è áðèãàäíûé ãåíåðàë Àõìàä Âàõèäè, êîòîðîãî ñ÷èòàþò îòöîì èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû. Ïî èíôîðìàöèè ãàçåòû, ðîññèéñêóþ ãðóïïó âîéäóò ýêñïåðòû, ðàçìåùàâøèå â Èðàíå êîìïëåêñû Òîð-Ì1.  ÷èñëå ïðî÷åãî Äìèòðèåâ îáñóäèò òåìó ïîäãîòîâêè èðàíñêèõ ñïåöèàëèñòîâ äëÿ ðàáîòû ñ ïðèîáðåòåííîé ñèñòåìîé.

 áóäóùåì ãîäó îðóæåéíûé ýêñïîðò äîñòèãíåò 7,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ

Îáúåì ðîññèéñêèõ ýêñïîðòíûõ ïîñòàâîê ïî ëèíèè âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîãî ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà ñ çàðóáåæíûìè ñòðàíàìè â 2008 ãîäó ìîæåò ïðèáëèçèòüñÿ ê 7,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ, ñîîáùèë ãåíåðàëüíûé äèðåêòîð Ãîñêîðïîðàöèè "Ðîñòåõíîëîãèè" Ñåðãåé ×åìåçîâ.  ýòîì ãîäó îí âïåðâûå ïðåâûñèë 7 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. "Âïåðâûå ìû äîáèëèñü òàêîãî ðåçóëüòàòà. ß äóìàþ, ÷òî è íà ñëåäóþùèé ãîä òàêæå áóäåò îïðåäåëåííîå óâåëè÷åíèå", - ñêàçàë ×åìåçîâ.

"Ìîæåò áûòü, ìû äîñòèãíåì ãäå-òî 7,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. Ýòî âïîëíå äîñòèæèìàÿ öèôðà", - ñêàçàë ×åìåçîâ íà ïðåññ-êîíôåðåíöèè â öåíòðàëüíîì îôèñå "Èíòåðôàêñà" â ÷åòâåðã.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 22 2008, 18:33:38     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/nytimes/2008/06/20/10:51:58/iran
ÑØÀ ãîâîðÿò, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêèå ó÷åíèÿ, ïî-âèäèìîìó, áûëè íàïðàâëåíû ïðîòèâ Èðàíà
Ìàéêë Ð. Ãîðäîí è Ýðèê Øìèòò

 íà÷àëå èþíÿ Èçðàèëü ïðîâåë êðóïíûå âîåííûå ó÷åíèÿ, êîòîðûå, ïî ñëîâàì ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé àìåðèêàíñêîé àäìèíèñòðàöèè, íàïîìèíàëè ðåïåòèöèþ ïîòåíöèàëüíîé áîìáàðäèðîâêè èðàíñêèõ ÿäåðíûõ îáúåêòîâ.

Íåñêîëüêî îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö ÑØÀ îòìåòèëè, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêèå ó÷åíèÿ, ïî-âèäèìîìó, èìåëè öåëüþ îòðàáîòêó àâèàíàëåòîâ íà äàëüíåì ðàññòîÿíèè, à òàêæå áûëè ïðèçâàíû ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàòü, íàñêîëüêî ñåðüåçíî Èçðàèëü îòíîñèòñÿ ê ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå Èðàíà.

 ìàíåâðàõ, ïðîøåäøèõ â âîçäóøíîì ïðîñòðàíñòâå íàä âîñòî÷íîé ÷àñòüþ Ñðåäèçåìíîãî ìîðÿ è Ãðåöèåé â ïåðâóþ íåäåëþ èþíÿ, ó÷àñòâîâàëî áîëåå 100 èçðàèëüñêèõ áîåâûõ ñàìîëåòîâ F-16 è F-15, ñîîáùèëè â àìåðèêàíñêîé àäìèíèñòðàöèè.

 ó÷åíèÿõ áûëè çàäåéñòâîâàíû è èçðàèëüñêèå âåðòîëåòû, êîòîðûå ìîãóò èñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ äëÿ ñïàñåíèÿ ñáèòûõ ëåò÷èêîâ. Âåðòîëåòû è ñàìîëåòû-çàïðàâùèêè ïðåîäîëåëè 900 ñ ëèøíèì ìèëü, ÷òî ïðèìåðíî ðàâíî ðàññòîÿíèþ îò Èçðàèëÿ äî çàâîäà â Íàòàíçå, ãäå èðàíöû çàíèìàþòñÿ îáîãàùåíèåì óðàíà, îòìåòèëè àìåðèêàíöû.

Èçðàèëüñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè îòêàçàëèñü âäàâàòüñÿ â ïîäðîáíîñòè ó÷åíèé. Îôèöèàëüíûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü èçðàèëüñêîãî ìèíèñòåðñòâà îáîðîíû ñêàçàë ëèøü, ÷òî ÂÂÑ ñòðàíû "ðåãóëÿðíî îòðàáàòûâàþò ðàçëè÷íûå áîåâûå çàäà÷è, ÷òîáû îòðàæàòü âûçîâû, èñõîäÿùèå îò ñèë, êîòîðûå óãðîæàþò Èçðàèëþ".

Íî ðàçìàõ èçðàèëüñêèõ ó÷åíèé ïðàêòè÷åñêè ãàðàíòèðîâàë, ÷òî îíè íå óñêîëüçíóò îò âíèìàíèÿ àìåðèêàíñêîé è äðóãèõ èíîñòðàííûõ ðàçâåäîê. Âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ñîòðóäíèê Ïåíòàãîíà, êîòîðîãî îçíàêîìèëè ñ èíôîðìàöèåé îá ó÷åíèÿõ (îí ïðåäïî÷åë îñòàòüñÿ àíîíèìíûì ââèäó ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ùåêîòëèâîñòè âîïðîñà), ñêàçàë, ÷òî ìàíåâðû, âåðîÿòíî, ïðåñëåäîâàëè ñðàçó íåñêîëüêî öåëåé.

Ïî ñëîâàì ýòîãî èñòî÷íèêà, îäíîé èç öåëåé èçðàèëüòÿí áûëà îòðàáîòêà òàêòèêè ïîëåòîâ, äîçàïðàâêè ñàìîëåòîâ â âîçäóõå è âñåõ äðóãèõ äåòàëåé ïîòåíöèàëüíîãî óäàðà ïî èðàíñêèì ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì è ðàêåòàì áîëüøîé äàëüíîñòè, îñíàùåííûì íåÿäåðíûìè áîåãîëîâêàìè.

Âòîðàÿ öåëü, – îòìåòèë èñòî÷íèê, – ñîñòîÿëà â òîì, ÷òîáû äàòü ÷åòêèé ñèãíàë Ñîåäèíåííûì Øòàòàì è äðóãèì ñòðàíàì, îçíà÷àþùèé, ÷òî Èçðàèëü ãîòîâ ïðèìåíèòü âîåííóþ ñèëó, åñëè ïîïûòêè äèïëîìàòîâ ïðèíóäèòü Èðàí ê ïðåêðàùåíèþ ïðîèçâîäñòâà îðóæåéíîãî óðàíà âíîâü îêàæóòñÿ áåçóñïåøíûìè.

"Îíè õîòåëè, ÷òîáû ìû óçíàëè, è ÷òîáû åâðîïåéöû óçíàëè, è ÷òîáû èðàíöû óçíàëè, – ïîÿñíèë ñîòðóäíèê Ïåíòàãîíà. – Òåì ñàìûì áûëî ïîäàíî ìíîæåñòâî ñèãíàëîâ íà ðàçíûõ óðîâíÿõ".

Íåñêîëüêî ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé àìåðèêàíñêîé àäìèíèñòðàöèè âûðàçèëè ñîìíåíèÿ â òîì, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêîå ïðàâèòåëüñòâî äåéñòâèòåëüíî ïðèøëî ê âûâîäó, ÷òî îáÿçàíî àòàêîâàòü Èðàí. Íà èõ âçãëÿä, â áëèæàéøåå âðåìÿ òàêîãî óäàðà íå áóäåò.

Øàóëü Ìîôàç, áûâøèé ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Èçðàèëÿ, à íûíå âèöå-ïðåìüåð, â íåäàâíåì èíòåðâüþ èçðàèëüñêîé ãàçåòå "Åäèîò Àõðîíîò" ïðåäîñòåðåã, ÷òî ó Èçðàèëÿ ìîæåò íå îñòàòüñÿ äðóãîãî âûáîðà, êðîìå àòàêè. "Åñëè Èðàí ïðîäîëæèò ñâîè ðàçðàáîòêè ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ, ìû íàíåñåì óäàð, – ñêàçàë Ìîôàç â èíòåðâüþ, îïóáëèêîâàííîì 6 èþíÿ, íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü ïîñëå îêîí÷àíèÿ ó÷åíèé – êñòàòè, ôàêò èõ ïðîâåäåíèÿ íå ïðåäàâàëñÿ îãëàñêå. – Óäàð ïî Èðàíó, ïðèçâàííûé ïîêîí÷èòü ñ åãî ÿäåðíûìè ïëàíàìè, áóäåò íåèçáåæíûì".

Íî äðóãèå èçðàèëüñêèå ïîëèòèêè ðàñêðèòèêîâàëè Ìîôàçà, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî îí ëèøü ïûòàåòñÿ óêðåïèòü ñîáñòâåííûå ïîçèöèè â ñèòóàöèè, êîãäà âîçíèêàåò âñå áîëüøå ñîìíåíèé â òîì, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêèé ïðåìüåð Ýõóä Îëüìåðò, îñûïàåìûé íàïàäêàìè, ñìîæåò óäåðæàòüñÿ ó âëàñòè.

Èçðàèëüñêèå îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà ñîîáùèëè àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòîðîíå, ÷òî çàÿâëåíèå Ìîôàçà íå îòðàæàåò îôèöèàëüíûé êóðñ âëàñòåé. Íî òàêæå àìåðèêàíöàì ñîîáùèëè, ÷òî Èçðàèëü ïîäãîòîâèë ïëàíû óäàðîâ ïî ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì â Èðàíå è ïðè íåîáõîäèìîñòè ìîæåò èõ îñóùåñòâèòü.

Ïî íåêîòîðûì ïðèçíàêàì, Èðàí âîñïðèíÿë ïðåäîñòåðåæåíèÿ Èçðàèëÿ ñåðüåçíî: â ïîñëåäíèå íåäåëè îí óñèëèë ñâîþ ñèñòåìó ÏÂÎ. Íàïðèìåð, ó÷àñòèëîñü ïàòðóëèðîâàíèå èðàíñêèõ ñàìîëåòîâ â âîçäóõå. Áûë òàêæå ñëó÷àé, êîãäà èðàíöû ïîäíÿëè ïî òðåâîãå ñàìîëåòû F-4, ÷òîáû äîïîëíèòåëüíî ïðîâåðèòü èðàêñêèé ãðàæäàíñêèé ñàìîëåò, êîòîðûé ñëåäîâàë èç Áàãäàäà â Òåãåðàí.

"Îíè ÿâíî âñòðåâîæåíû ýòèì è ïåðåâåëè ñâîþ ÏÂÎ â ñîñòîÿíèå ïîâûøåííîé áîåâîé ãîòîâíîñòè", – ñêàçàë îäèí èç ñîòðóäíèêîâ àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà îá èðàíöàõ.

Ëþáîé óäàð Èçðàèëÿ ïî ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì Èðàíà ñòîëêíåòñÿ ñ ðÿäîì ñëîæíîñòåé. Ìíîãèå àìåðèêàíñêèå ýêñïåðòû âûñêàçûâàþò ìíåíèå, ÷òî ïîäîáíàÿ àòàêà ìîæåò îòñðî÷èòü îñóùåñòâëåíèå èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû, íî íå ïîëîæèòü åé êîíåö. Çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü èíôðàñòðóêòóðû, îáñëóæèâàþùåé ÿäåðíûå ðàçðàáîòêè, íàõîäèòñÿ ïîä çåìëåé è áåòîííûìè óêðåïëåíèÿìè, ïðè÷åì îáîðóäîâàíèå óñòàíîâëåíî â äëèííûõ òîííåëÿõ èëè êîðèäîðàõ, ÷òî çàòðóäíÿåò òî÷íîå íàâåäåíèå íà öåëè. Êðîìå òîãî, åñòü îïàñåíèÿ, ÷òî íå âñå îáúåêòû îáíàðóæåíû. Äëÿ íàíåñåíèÿ ìàêñèìàëüíîãî óùåðáà, âîçìîæíî, ïîíàäîáÿòñÿ ìíîæåñòâåííûå óäàðû, à ìíîãèå àíàëèòèêè ñîìíåâàþòñÿ, ïîä ñèëó ëè ýòî â äàííûé ìîìåíò Èçðàèëþ.

Íî, âûæèäàÿ, èçðàèëüòÿíå òîæå ïîäâåðãàþò ñåáÿ ðèñêó. Îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà Èçðàèëÿ íåîäíîêðàòíî âûñêàçûâàëè îïàñåíèÿ, ÷òî Èðàí âñêîðå îñâîèò òåõíîëîãèè, íåîáõîäèìûå äëÿ ïðîèçâîäñòâà çíà÷èòåëüíûõ îáúåìîâ âûñîêîîáîãàùåííîãî óðàíà äëÿ ñîçäàíèÿ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ. Èðàí òàêæå ïðåäïðèíèìàåò ìåðû ïî ìîäåðíèçàöèè îáîðîíû ñâîèõ ÿäåðíûõ îáúåêòîâ. Íåäàâíî â Èðàí áûëè äîñòàâëåíû äâà êîìïëåêñà ñâåðõñîâðåìåííûõ ðàäèîëîêàöèîííûõ ñèñòåì ðîññèéñêîãî ïðîèçâîäñòâà. Ýòè ðàäàðû ðàñøèðÿò âîçìîæíîñòè Èðàíà ïî îáíàðóæåíèþ ñàìîëåòîâ, ëåòÿùèõ íà ìàëûõ âûñîòàõ.

Ìàéê Ìàêêîííåëë, äèðåêòîð Íàöèîíàëüíîé ðàçâåäêè ÑØÀ, ñêàçàë â ôåâðàëå, ÷òî Èðàí áëèçîê ê ïðèîáðåòåíèþ ðàêåò "çåìëÿ-âîçäóõ" ìîäåëè SA-20 ("Ïàíöèðü-Ñ1") ïðîèçâîäñòâà Ðîññèè. Àìåðèêàíñêèå âîåííûå çàÿâèëè, ÷òî ðàçìåùåíèå ïîäîáíûõ ñèñòåì ñîçäàñò ñëîæíîñòè äëÿ ïëàíèðîâàíèÿ èçðàèëüñêèõ àòàê è Èçðàèëü ñòîëêíåòñÿ ñ íåîáõîäèìîñòüþ ïðèìåíèòü ñèëó äî òîãî, êàê ðàêåòû áóäóò óñòàíîâëåíû.

Èðàíñêàÿ ÿäåðíàÿ ïðîãðàììà ÿâëÿåòñÿ èñòî÷íèêîì íåîòñòóïíîãî áåñïîêîéñòâà êàê äëÿ Ñîåäèíåííûõ Øòàòîâ, òàê è äëÿ Èçðàèëÿ.  äîêëàäå-ïðîãíîçå Íàöèîíàëüíîé ðàçâåäêè ÑØÀ, îïóáëèêîâàííîì â äåêàáðå àìåðèêàíñêèìè ðàçâåäñëóæáàìè, óòâåðæäàëîñü, ÷òî â êîíöå 2003 ãîäà Èðàí ïðèîñòàíîâèë ðàçðàáîòêè âîîðóæåíèé. Äîêëàä ãëàñèë, ÷òî íåò î÷åâèäíûõ ñâåäåíèé, óêàçûâàþùèõ íà âîçîáíîâëåíèå ðàáîò.  íåì òàêæå îòìå÷àëîñü, ÷òî Èðàí ïðîäîëæàë ðàçðàáîòêè â îáëàñòÿõ îáîãàùåíèÿ óðàíà è êîíñòðóèðîâàíèÿ ðàêåò – à ýòî äâà øàãà, íåîáõîäèìûå Èðàíó äëÿ ñîçäàíèÿ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ è ïîðàæåíèÿ èì öåëåé.

 êîíöå ìàÿ ÌÀÃÀÒÝ îòìåòèëî, ÷òî ÿäåðíûå ðàçðàáîòêè, êîòîðûå, ïî íåêîòîðûì ïîäîçðåíèÿì, âåäóòñÿ â Èðàíå, – "âîïðîñ, âûçûâàþùèé ãëóáîêîå áåñïîêîéñòâî", à èðàíöû äîëæíû äàòü ýòîìó àãåíòñòâó "ñîäåðæàòåëüíûå îáúÿñíåíèÿ".

Çà ïîñëåäíèå òðè äåñÿòèëåòèÿ Èçðàèëü îñóùåñòâèë äâà îäíîñòîðîííèõ óäàðà ïî ïðåäïîëàãàåìûì ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå. Â 1981 ãîäó èçðàèëüñêèå ñàìîëåòû ñîâåðøèëè íàëåò íà èðàêñêèé àòîìíûé ðåàêòîð â Îñèðàêå ïîñëå òîãî, êàê Èçðàèëü ïðèøåë ê âûâîäó, ÷òî îí çàäåéñòâîâàí â ïðîãðàììå Ñàääàìà Õóñåéíà ïî ðàçðàáîòêå ÿäåðíûõ âîîðóæåíèé. Â ñåíòÿáðå ïðîøëîãî ãîäà èçðàèëüñêàÿ àâèàöèÿ ðàçáîìáèëà â Ñèðèè çäàíèå, â êîòîðîì, ïî ñëîâàì ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé àìåðèêàíñêîé àäìèíèñòðàöèè, ðàçìåùàëñÿ ÿäåðíûé ðåàêòîð, ïîñòðîåííûé ñ ïîìîùüþ Ñåâåðíîé Êîðåè.

 1981 ãîäó ÑØÀ âûðàçèëè ïðîòåñò ïðîòèâ èçðàèëüñêîãî óäàðà ïî Èðàêó, íî âûñêàçûâàíèÿ àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòîðîíû â ïîñëåäíèå ìåñÿöû ðàâíîñèëüíû íåãëàñíîìó îäîáðåíèþ èçðàèëüñêîãî óäàðà ïî Ñèðèè.

Ñîòðóäíèêè Ïåíòàãîíà ãîâîðÿò, ÷òî ÂÂÑ Èçðàèëÿ îáû÷íî ïðîâîäÿò êðóïíûå ó÷åíèÿ â íà÷àëå ëåòà, ÷àñòî ïðîëåòàÿ íàä Ñðåäèçåìíûì ìîðåì èëè íàä ïîëèãîíàìè â Òóðöèè, ãäå îòðàáàòûâàþò áîìáàðäèðîâêè è äîçàïðàâêó â âîçäóõå. Íî íà ñåé ðàç â ó÷åíèÿõ ó÷àñòâîâàëî áîëüøå ñàìîëåòîâ, ÷åì ðàíüøå, à â èõ ïðîãðàììó áûëà âêëþ÷åíà äëèòåëüíàÿ ðåïåòèöèÿ ñïàñàòåëüíûõ îïåðàöèé â óñëîâèÿõ áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé.

Ïî-âèäèìîìó, ïëàíèðîâàíèå â çíà÷èòåëüíîé ìåðå îòðàæàåò ñòàðàíèÿ êîìàíäîâàíèÿ èçðàèëüñêèõ âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë îáåñïå÷èòü íàäëåæàùåå îñíàùåíèå è îáó÷åíèå âîéñê. Îñòðóþ íåîáõîäèìîñòü ýòîãî äîêàçàëè ñëîæíîñòè, ñ êîòîðûìè ñòîëêíóëèñü èçðàèëüñêèå âîåííûå âî âðåìÿ îïåðàöèè ïðîòèâ "Õèçáàëëû" â Ëèâàíå.

"Îíè ðåïåòèðóþò âíîâü è âíîâü, ÷òîáû õîðîøåíüêî ïîäãîòîâèòüñÿ íà òîò ñëó÷àé, åñëè èì ïðèäåòñÿ äåéñòâîâàòü â ðåàëüíîñòè, – îòìåòèë èñòî÷íèê â Ïåíòàãîíå. – Îíè íå èñêëþ÷àþò íè îäíîãî èç âîçìîæíûõ ñöåíàðèåâ".
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 22 2008, 18:36:28     :

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/washington/20iran.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
U.S. Says Israeli Exercise Seemed Directed at Iran

WASHINGTON — Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said.

Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise. A spokesman for the Israeli military would say only that the country’s air force “regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.”

But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes.

One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.

A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.

“They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know,” the Pentagon official said. “There’s a lot of signaling going on at different levels.”

Several American officials said they did not believe that the Israeli government had concluded that it must attack Iran and did not think that such a strike was imminent.

Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli defense minister who is now a deputy prime minister, warned in a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot that Israel might have no choice but to attack. “If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack,” Mr. Mofaz said in the interview published on June 6, the day after the unpublicized exercise ended. “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.”

But Mr. Mofaz was criticized by other Israeli politicians as seeking to enhance his own standing as questions mount about whether the embattled Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, can hang on to power.

Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that Mr. Mofaz’s statement does not represent official policy. But American officials were also told that Israel had prepared plans for striking nuclear targets in Iran and could carry them out if needed.

Iran has shown signs that it is taking the Israeli warnings seriously, by beefing up its air defenses in recent weeks, including increasing air patrols. In one instance, Iran scrambled F-4 jets to double-check an Iraqi civilian flight from Baghdad to Tehran.

“They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard,” a Bush administration official said of the Iranians.

Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would confront a number of challenges. Many American experts say they believe that such an attack could delay but not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Much of the program’s infrastructure is buried under earth and concrete and installed in long tunnels or hallways, making precise targeting difficult. There is also concern that not all of the facilities have been detected. To inflict maximum damage, multiple attacks might be necessary, which many analysts say is beyond Israel’s ability at this time.

But waiting also entails risks for the Israelis. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed fears that Iran will soon master the technology it needs to produce substantial quantities of highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

Iran is also taking steps to better defend its nuclear facilities. Two sets of advance Russian-made radar systems were recently delivered to Iran. The radar will enhance Iran’s ability to detect planes flying at low altitude.

Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February that Iran was close to acquiring Russian-produced SA-20 surface-to-air missiles. American military officials said that the deployment of such systems would hamper Israel’s attack planning, putting pressure on Israel to act before the missiles are fielded.

For both the United States and Israel, Iran’s nuclear program has been a persistent worry. A National Intelligence Estimate that was issued in December by American intelligence agencies asserted that Iran had suspended work on weapons design in late 2003. The report stated that it was unclear if that work had resumed. It also noted that Iran’s work on uranium enrichment and on missiles, two steps that Iran would need to take to field a nuclear weapon, had continued.

In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran’s suspected work on nuclear matters was a “matter of serious concern” and that the Iranians owed the agency “substantial explanations.”

Over the past three decades, Israel has carried out two unilateral attacks against suspected nuclear sites in the Middle East. In 1981, Israeli jets conducted a raid against Iraq’s nuclear plant at Osirak after concluding that it was part of Saddam Hussein’s program to develop nuclear weapons. In September, Israeli aircraft bombed a structure in Syria that American officials said housed a nuclear reactor built with the aid of North Korea.

The United States protested the Israeli strike against Iraq in 1981, but its comments in recent months have amounted to an implicit endorsement of the Israeli strike in Syria.

Pentagon officials said that Israel’s air forces usually conducted a major early summer training exercise, often flying over the Mediterranean or training ranges in Turkey where they practice bombing runs and aerial refueling. But the exercise this month involved a larger number of aircraft than had been previously observed, and included a lengthy combat rescue mission.

Much of the planning appears to reflect a commitment by Israel’s military leaders to ensure that its armed forces are adequately equipped and trained, an imperative driven home by the difficulties the Israeli military encountered in its Lebanon operation against Hezbollah.

“They rehearse it, rehearse it and rehearse it, so if they actually have to do it, they’re ready,” the Pentagon official said. “They’re not taking any options off the table.”
_________________
A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 26 2008, 13:38:10     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/lastampa/2008/06/24/12:40:20/iran

Äæîí Áîëòîí: "Ñëèøêîì ïîçäíî îñòàíàâëèâàòü áîìáó"

Ìàóðèöèî Ìîëèíàðè

"Ñòîéëî çàêðûëè, íî áûêè óæå ðàçáåæàëèñü". Òàê ïðîêîììåíòèðîâàë ðåøåíèå Åâðîïåéñêîãî ñîþçà î ïðèíÿòèè íîâûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ è ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ñàíêöèé ïðîòèâ Èðàíà Äæîí Áîëòîí, áûâøèé ïîñòîÿííûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü Ñîåäèíåííûõ Øòàòîâ ïðè ÎÎÍ è âåòåðàí áîðüáû ïðîòèâ ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèÿ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ.

- ×òî íå òàê â ýòèõ ñàíêöèÿõ Åâðîïåéñêîãî ñîþçà?

- Èõ ïðèíÿëè ñëèøêîì ïîçäíî. Åñëè ãîâîðèòü òî÷íåå, îíè çàïîçäàëè ëåò íà ïÿòü.  òî âðåìÿ Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû è Åâðîïåéñêèé ñîþç áûëè åäèíû, îíè ìîãëè ïðèìåíèòü ýíåðãè÷íûå ñàíêöèè è ðåàëüíî áëîêèðîâàòü ÿäåðíóþ ãîíêó Òåãåðàíà, íî âìåñòî ýòîãî îíè òåðÿëè âðåìÿ, îíè ïðîÿâëÿëè íåðåøèòåëüíîñòü, ïîçâîëÿÿ èðàíöàì èñïîëüçîâàòü â ñâîèõ èíòåðåñàõ ïåðåãîâîðû, â êîòîðûå îíè íå âåðèëè, è ïðîäîëæàëè òàéíî íàðàùèâàòü òåìïû ñâîåé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû.

- Ôàêòîì îñòàåòñÿ òî, ÷òî Melli Bank ÿâëÿåòñÿ ôèíàíñîâûì èíñòðóìåíòîì, ïðè ïîìîùè êîòîðîãî èðàíöû îñóùåñòâëÿëè ñâîþ ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó.

- Äà, ýòîò áàíê èãðàë òàêóþ ðîëü. Íî äîñòàòî÷íî âñïîìíèòü, ÷òî Òåãåðàí óæå íåñêîëüêî íåäåëü íàçàä ïðèíÿë ðåøåíèå âûâåñòè èç Åâðîïû êàïèòàëû â ðàçìåðå 75 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. Åâðîïà ðåøèëà çàìîðîçèòü ôèíàíñîâóþ äåÿòåëüíîñòü Èðàíà íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü ïîñëå ýòîé êîëîññàëüíîé óòå÷êè êàïèòàëîâ. È çà÷åì çàêðûâàòü ñòîéëî, åñëè áûêè óæå ðàçáåæàëèñü. Òåãåðàíó íîâûå ñàíêöèè íå íàíåñóò íèêàêîãî ñåðüåçíîãî óùåðáà.

- Íî òîãäà ïî÷åìó æå Äæîðäæ Áóø âî âðåìÿ ñâîåãî ïîñëåäíåãî âèçèòà â Åâðîïó íàñòîÿòåëüíî ïðîñèë åâðîïåéñêèõ ñîþçíèêîâ ââåñòè òàêèå ñàíêöèè?

- Áóø îñóùåñòâëÿåò ïîëèòèêó ñàíêöèé ñ 5-ëåòíèì îïîçäàíèåì. Èðàíöû óæå íàëàäèëè ïðîöåññ îáîãàùåíèÿ óðàíà, èõ ÿäåðíàÿ ïðîãðàììà çíà÷èòåëüíî ïðîäâèíóëàñü âïåðåä, è ïîäîáíûå ñàíêöèè, âíå âñÿêîãî ñîìíåíèÿ, íå ñóìåþò åå áëîêèðîâàòü. Ñåãîäíÿ ðåøåíèå î ñàíêöèÿõ óæå íå èìååò ñìûñëà. Åãî çíà÷åíèå ìîæíî íàçâàòü ñèìâîëè÷åñêèì, ÷òîáû ïîä÷åðêíóòü âîññîåäèíåíèå ÑØÀ è ÅÑ, íî â ïðàêòè÷åñêîì ïëàíå îíî àáñîëþòíî áåñïîëåçíî.

- ×åãî ñëåäóåò îæèäàòü îò ïðåäñòîÿùåãî ñàììèòà "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" â ßïîíèè?

- Áûëî áû âåñüìà ïîçèòèâíî ïî çàâåðøåíèè ñàììèòà ïðèíÿòü ñèëüíûé äîêóìåíò, îñóæäàþùèé èðàíñêóþ ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó, êîòîðûé áû ïîääåðæàëè, â ÷èñëå ïðî÷èõ, Ðîññèÿ è Êèòàé.

- Çà òå íåñêîëüêî ìåñÿöåâ, ÷òî Áóø åùå áóäåò íàõîäèòüñÿ â Áåëîì äîìå, ÷òî îí ìîæåò ñäåëàòü äîïîëíèòåëüíî, ÷òîáû îñòàíîâèòü ÿäåðíóþ ãîíêó Èðàíà?

- Ó íåãî îñòàëîñü òîëüêî äâà âàðèàíòà. Ïåðâûé – ñìåíà ðåæèìà â Òåãåðàíå, è âòîðîé, ê ñîæàëåíèþ, ïîñëåäíèé âîçìîæíûé âàðèàíò. Ðå÷ü èäåò î âîåííîì óäàðå.

- Êàê ñàíêöèè, ââåäåííûå åâðîïåéöàìè, ìîãóò ïîâëèÿòü íà ïëàíû âîçìîæíîé èçðàèëüñêîé âîåííîé îïåðàöèè?

-Íèêàê. Èçðàèëüòÿíå ïðèíèìàþò ðåøåíèÿ, ñâÿçàííûå ñ èõ íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòüþ, íå ïðèíèìàÿ â ðàñ÷åò òîãî, ÷òî äåëàþò äðóãèå. È ýòîò ôàêò ïðîÿâëÿåòñÿ åùå áîëåå î÷åâèäíî â ýòîì ñëó÷àå – ñëó÷àå çàïîçäàëûõ è íåýôôåêòèâíûõ ñàíêöèé.

- Èíûìè ñëîâàìè, ñàíêöèè íå îòìåíÿò óäàð?

- Ýòî ñàíêöèè, êîòîðûå íå âëèÿþò íà èðàíñêóþ ïðîãðàììó.

- Íåäàâíÿÿ íåîôèöèàëüíàÿ èíôîðìàöèÿ îá èçðàèëüñêèõ âîåííûõ ìàíåâðàõ â Ñðåäèçåìíîì ìîðå ïîçâîëÿåò ïîíÿòü, ÷òî óäàð íåìèíóåì?

- Ýòè ñâåäåíèÿ ëèøü ïîäòâåðæäàþò òî, ÷òî âîåííûé âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ ñîáûòèé âïîëíå ðåàëåí. Ðå÷ü èäåò î ïîñëåäíåé âîçìîæíîñòè, è î÷åíü ãðóñòíî îò òîãî, ÷òî ó íàñ ïðàêòè÷åñêè íå îñòàëîñü àëüòåðíàòèâ. Íî îòâåòñòâåííîñòü ëåæèò íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ñîîáùåñòâå, êîòîðîå, îñîçíàííî èëè íåò, ëüåò âîäó íà ìåëüíèöó èðàíöåâ, ïîçâîëÿÿ èì âûèãðàòü âðåìÿ, ÷òîáû óñîâåðøåíñòâîâàòü ñâîþ àòîìíóþ ïðîãðàììó.
_________________
A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 29 2008, 18:58:00     :

http://newsru.co.il/press/29jun2008/st_iran_101.html
The Sunday Times: Èðàí ãîòîâ àòàêîâàòü ÿäåðíîå ñåðäöå Èçðàèëÿ

 ñåãîäíÿøíåì íîìåðå áðèòàíñêîãî åæåíåäåëüíèêà The Sunday Times îïóáëèêîâàíà ñòàòüÿ áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîãî êîððåñïîíäåíòà ýòîãî èçäàíèÿ Óçè Ìàõíàèìè, â êîòîðîé ïðèâîäÿòñÿ íîâûå ïîäðîáíîñòè ïî ïîâîäó ïîäãîòîâêè Èðàíà ê íàíåñåíèþ ðàêåòíûõ óäàðîâ ïî ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèì öåëÿì íà òåððèòîðèè Èçðàèëÿ.

- Ýêñ-ãëàâà "Ìîñàäà" â èíòåðâüþ Sunday Telegraph: ó Èçðàèëÿ åñòü ãîä, ÷òîáû óíè÷òîæèòü ÿäåðíóþ ïðîãðàììó Èðàíà

Íà ìèíóâøåé íåäåëå, 25 èþíÿ, èðàíñêèå ÑÌÈ ñîîáùèëè, ÷òî Êîðïóñà ñòðàæåé èñëàìñêîé ðåâîëþöèè íàöåëèëè ðàêåòû äàëüíåãî ðàäèóñà äåéñòâèÿ íà íåñêîëüêî öåëåé â Èçðàèëå. Ñàóäîâñêîå èçäàíèå "Àëü-Âàòàí" òîãäà æå ïðîöèòèðîâàëî êîìàíäèðà ÊÑÈÐ, êîòîðûé çàÿâèë, ÷òî ïîä ïðèöåëîì îêàçàëèñü èçðàèëüñêèå ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèå îáúåêòû. Âûñêàçûâàëîñü ïðåäïîëîæåíèå, ÷òî îäíîé èç ãëàâíûõ öåëåé Èðàíà ÿâëÿåòñÿ ÿäåðíûé ðåàêòîð â Äèìîíå.

Ýòè ïóáëèêàöèè ïîñëåäîâàëè çà ñîîáùåíèÿìè î òîì, ÷òî Èçðàèëü ïðîâåë êðóïíîìàñøòàáíûå ó÷åíèÿ âîåííî-âîçäóøíûõ ñèë â Ñðåäèçåìíîìîðüå, â õîäå êîòîðûõ îòðàáàòûâàëñÿ ñöåíàðèé àòàêè íà èðàíñêèå ÿäåðíûå îáúåêòû. Îòìåòèì, ÷òî èìåííî Times ïåðâûì îïóáëèêîâàë èíôîðìàöèþ î âîçìîæíûõ öåëÿõ ýòèõ ó÷åíèé.

The Sunday Times ïèøåò î òîì, ÷òî Èðàí íàöåëèë íà Èçðàèëü ðàêåòû "Øèõàá-3B", "ñ ïðåäïîëàãàåìûì ðàäèóñîì äåéñòâèÿ ñâûøå 1.250 ìèëü". Áðèòàíñêèé åæåíåäåëüíèê öèòèðóåò èíòåðâüþ, êîòîðîå äàë ãàçåòå "Äæàì-è Äæàì" êîìàíäóþùèé Êîðïóñîì ñòðàæåé èñëàìñêîé ðåâîëþöèè ãåíåðàë-ìàéîð Ìîõàììåä-Àëè Äæàôàðè. Èðàíñêèé ãåíåðàë, â ÷àñòíîñòè, çàÿâèë: "Ýòà ñòðàíà (Èçðàèëü) íàõîäèòñÿ ïîëíîñòüþ â ïðåäåëàõ äèàïàçîíà ðàêåò Èñëàìñêîé ðåñïóáëèêè. Íàøà ðàêåòíàÿ ìîùü òàêîâà, ÷òî ñèîíèñòñêèé ðåæèì, íåñìîòðÿ íà âñå åãî âîçìîæíîñòè, íå ìîæåò ïðîòèâîñòîÿòü ýòîìó".

Times ïðèâîäèò òàêæå â êà÷åñòâå ïðèìåðà çàãîëîâîê ïåðåäîâèöû â ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííîé èðàíñêîé ãàçåòå "Äæîìõóðè Åñëàìè": "Íàø îòâåòíûé óäàð ïîðàçèò èõ ïðÿìî â èõ õðàìå". Ýòîò çàãîëîâîê íåêîòîðûìè èçðàèëüñêèìè ÑÌÈ áûë èíòåðïðåòèðîâàí êàê ãîòîâíîñòü èðàíöåâ àòàêîâàòü Èåðóñàëèì.

"Áðÿöàíèå îðóæèåì ñîâïàëî ñ â÷åðàøíèì ïîñåùåíèåì Èçðàèëÿ ïðåäñåäàòåëåì Îáúåäèíåííîãî êîìèòåòà íà÷àëüíèêîâ øòàáîâ âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë ÑØÀ àäìèðàëîì Ìàéêëîì Ìóëëåíîì, ïðèáûâøåì äëÿ ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñ åãî èçðàèëüñêèì êîëëåãîé Ãàáè Àøêåíàçè. Ýòî óñèëèëî ñïåêóëÿöèè ïî ïîâîäó òîãî, ÷òî Èçðàèëü äîáèâàåòñÿ àìåðèêàíñêîãî îäîáðåíèÿ âîçìîæíîé àòàêè íà Èðàí", – ïèøåò ñåãîäíÿøíèé Times.

Èçäàíèå öèòèðóåò íåêîãî ïðåäñòàâèòåëÿ îáîðîííîãî âåäîìñòâà Èçðàèëÿ, êîòîðûé ãîâîðèò î öåëè âèçèòà Ìóëëåíà: "Õîòÿ ïîåçäêà áûëà ñïëàíèðîâàíà çàðàíåå, ó íàñ âîçíèêëî ÷óâñòâî, ÷òî îí ïðèåõàë, ÷òîáû óäîñòîâåðèòüñÿ â òîì, ÷òî ìû áóäåì ñëåäîâàòü ïëàíàì, ñîãëàñîâàííûì ñ Ñîåäèíåííûìè Øòàòàìè".

 ñòàòüå òàêæå îòìå÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî ïðåçèäåíò ÑØÀ Äæîðäæ Áóø îäîáðèë ïðèñîåäèíåíèå Èçðàèëÿ ê àìåðèêàíñêîé ñèñòåìå ñïóòíèêîâîãî îáíàðóæåíèÿ çàïóñêà âðàæåñêèõ ðàêåò, êîòîðàÿ ïîçâîëÿåò â òå÷åíèå íåñêîëüêèõ ñåêóíä çàñå÷ü ïóñê ðàêåòû êëàññà "Øèõàá". Ïî îöåíêå àâòîðà ñòàòüè, ýòî ïîçâîëèò âîçäóøíûì ñèëàì Èçðàèëÿ óíè÷òîæàòü èðàíñêèå "Øèõàáû" "íà ñòàäèè ðàêåòû-íîñèòåëÿ". "Êðîìå òîãî, ýòà ñèñòåìà äàñò èçðàèëüòÿíàì ïðèìåðíî 15 ìèíóò äëÿ òîãî, ÷òîáû íàéòè óêðûòèå äî ðàçðûâà ëþáîé áîåãîëîâêè", – ïèøåò The Sunday Times.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 18:27:22     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/09jul2008/iran8006.html
Èðàí óñïåøíî èñïûòàë "Øèõàá-3". Èçðàèëüñêèå âîåííûå íå âïå÷àòëèëèñü

 õîäå ó÷åíèé "Âåëèêèé ïðîðîê-3", ïðîõîäÿùèõ â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ â Èðàíå, ðàêåòíûå ïîäðàçäåëåíèÿ Êîðïóñîâ ñòðàæåé èñëàìñêîé ðåâîëþöèè (ÊÑÈÐ) ïðîèçâåëè ïóñêè ðàêåò ñðåäíåãî è äàëüíåãî ðàäèóñà äåéñòâèÿ. Óñïåøíûå èñïûòàíèÿ ïðîøëà ðàêåòà "Øèõàá-3", ïåðåäàþò èðàíñêèå ÑÌÈ.

Ïðåäñòàâèòåëè ÊÑÈÐ ñîîáùèëè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûì ÑÌÈ î ïóñêå íåñêîëüêèõ ðàêåò, â òîì ÷èñëå, ìîäèôèöèðîâàííóþ "Øèõàá-3", êîòîðàÿ ìîæåò ïîðàæàòü öåëè íà ðàññòîÿíèè äî 2.000 êì. "Øèõàá-3" îñíàùàåòñÿ áîåãîëîâêîé âåñîì â òîííó. Ïóñêè ðàêåò ïðîâîäèëèñü â ïóñòûíå.

Èçðàèëüñêèå ýêñïåðòû îòìå÷àþò, ÷òî èñïûòàíèÿ ðàêåòû "Øèõàá-3" äàëåêè îò çàâåðøåíèÿ. Ïî èõ äàííûì, "Øèõàá-3" îòëè÷àåòñÿ íåòî÷íîñòüþ è ìîæåò óãðîæàòü ñêîðåå ãðàæäàíñêèì îáúåêòàì, ÷åì âîåííûì áàçàì, ñîîáùèëà ñåãîäíÿ ðàäèîñòàíöèÿ "Êîëü Èñðàýëü".
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 18:43:55     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/lastampa/2008/07/10/10:41:53/iran

Èðàíñêàÿ ðàêåòà, ÷òîáû çàïóãàòü Èçðàèëü

Ôðàí÷åñêà Ïà÷è

"Âî âòîðíèê âå÷åðîì ìû ñèäåëè íà áàëêîíå è åëè àðáóç, êîãäà íåîæèäàííî óâèäåëè ÿð÷àéøóþ ìîëíèþ, îíà ïðîëåòåëà ïî íåáó è óøëà â ìîðå", – ðàññêàçûâàåò Ýñòåð Êàö, àäâîêàò è æåíà àäâîêàòà, ñ êîíòîðîé íà Äèçåíãîôô-ñòðèò è íåáîëüøîé âèëëîé íåïîäàëåêó îò ïîðòà Òåëü-Àâèâà. "ß ïîäóìàëà, ÷òî ýòî êîìåòà", – ïðîäîëæèëà îíà. À ðîäèòåëè, êîòîðûå æèâóò â Ìîäèíå, âñïîìíèëè îá óãðîçàõ èðàíñêîãî ïðåçèäåíòà Àõìàäèíåæàäà è ïîçâîíèëè â ïîëèöèþ, íî ëèíèÿ áûëà çàíÿòà. Ïî ìíåíèþ ó÷åíûõ, ýòî áûë âñåãî ëèøü ìåòåîðèò îãðîìíûõ ðàçìåðîâ, à ëîæíàÿ òðåâîãà – ðåçóëüòàò åæåäíåâíî çâó÷àùèõ âîèíñòâåííûõ òàìòàìîâ. Òàê äóìàëè äî â÷åðàøíåãî óòðà, ïîêà Òåãåðàí íå ðàñïðîñòðàíèë ñîîáùåíèå î ïóñêå 9 ðàêåò, îäíà èç êîòîðûõ ÿâëÿåòñÿ óñîâåðøåíñòâîâàííîé ìîäåëüþ ðàêåòû Shahab-3, ñïîñîáíîé äîñòè÷ü Èçðàèëÿ, è ïðåìüåð Îëüìåðò ñðî÷íî ñîáðàë Ñîâåò îáîðîíû.

Ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ìîë÷èò, íî â äîìå Êàö è â ãîñòèíûõ òûñÿ÷ èçðàèëüòÿí ãîâîðÿò. Êàê áóäòî êîíôëèêò ñ ðåæèìîì àÿòîëë óæå íå ïðîñòî âåðîÿòåí, åãî íà÷àëî – ëèøü âîïðîñ âðåìåíè.

"Äà, äóþò âåòðû âîéíû", – ïðèçíàë ãåíåðàë Àìíîí Ëèïêèí Øàõàê, áûâøèé íà÷àëüíèê ãåíåðàëüíîãî øòàáà.  ïðîøëîì ìåñÿöå èçðàèëüñêàÿ àâèàöèÿ ïðîâåëà ìàñøòàáíûå ó÷åíèÿ â íåáå íàä Ãðåöèåé, à íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü ìèíèñòð òðàíñïîðòà Øàóëü Ìîôàç áåç îáèíÿêîâ ñêàçàë î "íåèçáåæíîñòè óäàðà ïî Èðàíó". È íåâàæíî, ÷òî ïàðó íåäåëü íàçàä àäìèðàë Ìàéêë Ìàëëåí, ïðåäñåäàòåëü êîìèòåòà íà÷àëüíèêîâ øòàáîâ âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë ÑØÀ, çàâåðøàÿ ñâîé âèçèò â Èåðóñàëèì, îòãîâàðèâàë èçðàèëüòÿí îò âîçìîæíîãî ðåéäà. Ñ Ñîåäèíåííûìè Øòàòàìè èëè áåç íèõ, Èçðàèëü ðåøèë çàùèùàòüñÿ.

Ìåæäóíàðîäíîå ñîîáùåñòâî ïðîäîëæàåò ïðèäåðæèâàòüñÿ äèïëîìàòè÷åñêîãî ïóòè ðåøåíèÿ êðèçèñà. Íî ïóñê ðàêåò Shahab-3 ñ ðàäèóñîì äåéñòâèÿ äî 2000 êì, îñíàùåííûõ ðàçäåëÿþùèìèñÿ áîåãîëîâêàìè, âûçûâàåò íåìàëóþ îçàáî÷åííîñòü. Íà÷èíàÿ ñ ìèíèñòðà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Èòàëèè Ôðàíêî Ôðàòòèíè, êîòîðûé â÷åðà ïðèáûë â Ðàìàëëàõ, ÷òîáû âñòðåòèòüñÿ ñ ïàëåñòèíñêèì ïðåìüåðîì Ñàëàìîì Ôàéÿäîì è îáúÿâèòü åìó î âûäåëåíèè åùå 20 ìëí åâðî – äîïîëíèòåëüíîé ñóììû, ïîìèìî òåõ ñðåäñòâ, êîòîðûå íåäàâíî áûëè âûäåëåíû íà êîíôåðåíöèè â Áåðëèíå. Ïî ñëîâàì Ôðàòòèíè, "âñå ìèðîâîå ñîîáùåñòâî, íå òîëüêî Èçðàèëü, çàèíòåðåñîâàíû â òîì, ÷òîáû îêîí÷àòåëüíî áëîêèðîâàòü ýòó ýñêàëàöèþ". Åùå è ïîòîìó, çàÿâèë íà ñàììèòå G8 ïðåäñåäàòåëü Ñîâåòà ìèíèñòðîâ Èòàëèè Áåðëóñêîíè, ÷òî ïðîâàë ïåðåãîâîðîâ ïî èðàíñêîìó ÿäåðíîìó äîñüå ñòàíåò "êàòàñòðîôîé äëÿ âñåãî àðàáñêîãî ìèðà", à âîçìîæíî, äàæå äëÿ âñåé ïëàíåòû.

Èðàí íå ñäàåòñÿ. Îí îòêàçûâàåòñÿ ïðåêðàòèòü îáîãàùåíèå óðàíà, íà ÷åì íàñòàèâàåò Ñîâåò Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, è âíîâü âûñòóïàåò ñ óãðîçàìè ïðåäàòü "îãíþ è ìå÷ó" Òåëü-Àâèâ â òîì ñëó÷àå, åñëè ïî åãî ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì áóäåò íàíåñåí óäàð. Â÷åðàøíåå èñïûòàíèå, ãîâîðèò êîìàíäóþùèé ÂÂÑ ÊÑÈÐ Õîñåéí Ñàëàìè, "ÿâëÿåòñÿ äåìîíñòðàöèåé ñèëû è òâåðäîñòè íàìåðåíèé â îòíîøåíèè âðàãîâ, êîòîðûå íà ïðîòÿæåíèè íåñêîëüêèõ íåäåëü ïðîâîöèðóþò íàñ ãðóáûìè âûñêàçûâàíèÿìè".

Åñëè ãîíêâ âîîðóæåíèé åùå íå ïðîÿâëÿåòñÿ â ïîëíóþ ñèëó, òî ñëîâåñíàÿ ýñêàëàöèÿ íà÷àëàñü óæå äàâíî. Ãîññåêðåòàðü ÑØÀ Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ âîñïðèíÿëà èñïûòàíèå Òåãåðàíîì íîâîé ðàêåòû êàê "äîêàçàòåëüñòâî" òîãî, ÷òî èðàíñêàÿ óãðîçà "íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïëîäîì âîîáðàæåíèÿ". Ýòî ìíåíèå ðàçäåëÿþò îáà êàíäèäàòà íà ïîñò ãëàâû Áåëîãî äîìà: äåìîêðàò Áàðàê Îáàìà âûñòóïàåò çà "àãðåññèâíóþ äèïëîìàòèþ" ñ äîïîëíèòåëüíûìè ñàíêöèÿìè, à ðåñïóáëèêàíåö Ìàêêåéí âñåöåëî ïîääåðæèâàåò èäåþ ñîçäàíèÿ ïðîòèâîðàêåòíîãî ùèòà â Åâðîïå.

Shahab-3, â äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè, ÿâëÿåòñÿ óñòàðåâøåé ìîäåëüþ, î êîòîðîé èçðàèëüñêîé ðàçâåäêå èçâåñòíî óæå òðè ãîäà. Ñóäÿ ïî âñåìó, Èðàí ðàñïîëàãàåò òðåìÿ äåñÿòêàìè òàêèõ ðàêåò. Êàê îòìå÷àþò ýêñïåðòû, äàæå åñëè ðàêåòû áóäóò âûïóùåíû âñå ñðàçó, âðÿä ëè îíè íàíåñóò áîëüøå óùåðáà, ÷åì èðàêñêèå ðàêåòû Scud-C â 1991 ãîäó. Íî ýòî ñëàáîå óòåøåíèå äëÿ ñóïðóãîâ Êàö, êîòîðûå è ñåãîäíÿ âå÷åðîì âñìàòðèâàþòñÿ â íåáî Òåëü-Àâèâà, ïîêà ÷èñòîå.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 18:47:13     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/guardian/2008/07/11/12:55:50/iran
Ðàéñ ïðåäóïðåæäàåò Òåãåðàí: ÑØÀ íå çàìåäëÿò çàùèòèòü Èçðàèëü
Äæóëèàí Áîðãåð, Èâýí Ìàêàñêèëë

Òàêèå îáåùàíèÿ áûëà äàíû íà âòîðîé äåíü èñïûòàíèé áàëëèñòè÷åñêèõ ðàêåò. Èðàíñêèå ëèäåðû óãðîæàþò â ñëó÷àå íàïàäåíèÿ ïåðåêðûòü âàæíåéøèé íåôòÿíîé ìàðøðóò

ÑØÀ ïîîáåùàëè çàùèòèòü Èçðàèëü è äðóãèõ ñâîèõ ñîþçíèêîâ â ðàéîíå Ïåðñèäñêîãî çàëèâà â ñâÿçè ñ òåì, ÷òî â÷åðà Èðàí çàâåðøèë äâóõäíåâíóþ ïðîãðàììó èñïûòàíèé ñâîåé âòîðîé áàëëèñòè÷åñêîé ðàêåòû.

Ïîñêîëüêó ñèòóàöèÿ â ðåãèîíå óõóäøèëàñü, ôðàíöóçñêàÿ íåôòÿíàÿ êîìïàíèÿ Total çàÿâèëà, ÷òî âûéäåò èç ó÷àñòèÿ â êðóïíîìàñøòàáíûõ èíâåñòèöèÿõ â èðàíñêèå ãàçîâûå ìåñòîðîæäåíèÿ – ñåðüåçíûé óäàð äëÿ Òåãåðàíà, êîòîðûé çàèíòåðåñîâàí â ðàçðàáîòêå ñâîèõ ãàçîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ, è ïîáåäà äëÿ àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà, êîòîðûé â ïîñëåäíåå âðåìÿ ñòðåìèòñÿ èçîëèðîâàòü ïðàâèòåëüñòâî Èðàíà.

Ïðåäñòàâèòåëü êîìïàíèè çàÿâèë, ÷òî äåëàòü èíâåñòèöèè â Èðàíå ñåé÷àñ ñëèøêîì ðèñêîâàííî.

Â÷åðà öåíû íà íåôòü ñíîâà ïîïîëçëè ââåðõ ïîñëå òîãî, êàê ÎÏÅÊ çàÿâèëà, ÷òî íå ñìîæåò âîñïîëíèòü íèêàêîé äåôèöèò íåôòè, åñëè íà Èðàí íàïàäóò, è ïåðåñòàëà ïîñòàâëÿòü íà ðûíîê ñûðóþ íåôòü.

Âòîðîé çàïóñê ðàêåò áûë îñóùåñòâëåí Êîðïóñîì ñòðàæåé èñëàìñêîé ðåâîëþöèè – ïîëèòèçèðîâàííûõ âîîðóæåííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé, ñóùåñòâóþùèõ íàðÿäó ñ ðåãóëÿðíîé àðìèåé. Ïåíòàãîí, êîòîðûé îòñëåæèâàåò òàêèå çàïóñêè ñ ïîìîùüþ ñïóòíèêîâ-øïèîíîâ è äðóãèõ òåõíîëîãèé, â÷åðà ïîäòâåðäèë, ÷òî ïðîøëà âòîðàÿ ñåðèÿ èñïûòàíèé, êîòîðûå ïðîâîäèëèñü íî÷üþ.

Èçðàèëü îòâåòèë íà èñïûòàíèÿ ñîáñòâåííîé äåìîíñòðàöèåé ñèëû, âûñòàâèâ íà îáîçðåíèå ó ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî àýðîïîðòà Áåí-Ãóðèîí ñâîé íîâûé ñàìîëåò ðàçâåäêè è äàëüíåãî îáíàðóæåíèÿ, ñïîñîáíûé äîëåòåòü äî Èðàíà. Èçðàèëü òàêæå äàë ïîíÿòü, ÷òî ïðè íåîáõîäèìîñòè íå çàìåäëèò àòàêîâàòü ÿäåðíûå îáúåêòû Èðàíà.

Ñîãëàñíî îôèöèàëüíûì ñîîáùåíèÿì èç Èðàíà, èñïûòàííîå îðóæèå âêëþ÷àëî ðàêåòû äàëüíåãî äåéñòâèÿ Shahab-3, ñïîñîáíûå äîñòè÷ü èçðàèëüñêèõ è àìåðèêàíñêèõ áàç â ðåãèîíå è èìåþùèå íåèçâåñòíûå òåõíè÷åñêèå îñîáåííîñòè. Íî Ïåíòàãîí íàñòîé÷èâî óòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî ýòî âñåãî ëèøü îáû÷íûå ðàêåòû áëèæíåãî äåéñòâèÿ.

Êîìàíäèð Êîðïóñà ñòðàæåé èñëàìñêîé ðåâîëþöèè Àëè Äæàôàðè çàÿâèë â ñâÿçè ñ èñïûòàíèÿìè: "Ýòîò øàã ïðèäàåò ñèëû Èñëàìñêîé Ðåñïóáëèêå Èðàí è ïîñëóæèò óðîêîì äëÿ åå âðàãîâ".

 ñëó÷àå íàïàäåíèÿ Èðàí ñòàë óãðîæàòü ïåðåêðûòü Îðìóçñêèé ïðîëèâ – æèçíåííî âàæíûé ìàðøðóò äëÿ ýêñïîðòà íåôòåïðîäóêòîâ èç ðåãèîíà. Èðàíñêèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå ÑÌÈ ñîîáùèëè, ÷òî âî â÷åðàøíèõ ó÷åíèÿõ ó÷àñòâîâàëè áîåâûå ïëîâöû è ñêîðîñòíûå êàòåðà, à òàêæå áûëà çàïóùåíà ñêîðîñòíàÿ òîðïåäà Hout. Èñïûòàíèÿ ðàêåò è ìîðñêèå îïåðàöèè ñòàëè ÿâíûì îòâåòîì íà èçðàèëüñêèå ìàíåâðû â ïðîøëîì ìåñÿöå, âî âðåìÿ êîòîðûõ, êàê ñîîáùàëîñü, âîåííûå ñàìîëåòû îòðàáàòûâàëè âîçäóøíûå óäàðû ïî ÿäåðíûì îáúåêòàì Èðàíà.

Ãîññåêðåòàðü ÑØÀ Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ â÷åðà äàëà ïîíÿòü, ÷òî â ñëó÷àå íàïàäåíèÿ íà Èçðàèëü ÑØÀ ïðåäïðèìóò îòâåòíûå ìåðû.

"Ìû î÷åíü, î÷åíü ñåðüåçíî îòíîñèìñÿ ê íàøèì îáÿçàòåëüñòâàì ïîìîãàòü íàøèì ñîþçíèêàì çàùèùàòüñÿ, è ýòî íèêîãî íå äîëæíî óäèâëÿòü", – çàÿâèëà Ðàéñ âî âðåìÿ âèçèòà â Ãðóçèþ.

Ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Èçðàèëÿ Ýõóä Áàðàê, âûñòóïàÿ íà ñîáðàíèè ëåéáîðèñòîâ, ñêàçàë, ÷òî åãî ñòðàíà åùå íå íàõîäèòñÿ â ïîëîæåíèè, "êîãäà æèçíåííî âàæíûå èíòåðåñû åå áåçîïàñíîñòè" ïîñòàâëåíû íà êàðòó, ÿâíî íàìåêàÿ íà 1981 ãîä, êîãäà èçðàèëüñêèå ñàìîëåòû óíè÷òîæèëè èðàêñêèé çàâîä ïî ïðîèçâîäñòâó ÿäåðíûõ êîìïîíåíòîâ. Íî îí ñìÿã÷èë ñâîè çàìå÷àíèÿ, îòìåòèâ, ÷òî "ðåàêöèþ âðàãîâ... ñëåäóåò òàêæå ïðèíèìàòü â ðàñ÷åò".

Åñëè áû Èçðàèëü äåéñòâèòåëüíî íàïàë íà Èðàí, Òåãåðàí ìîã âûçâàòü íà Ñðåäíåì Âîñòîêå öåëûé âçðûâ, âìåñòå ñî ñâîèì ñîþçíèêîì "Õèçáàëëîé" àòàêîâàâ ñåâåðíûå ãðàíèöû Èçðàèëÿ; ïðè ýòîì èðàíñêèå ïðîòåæå â Èðàêå è Àôãàíèñòàíå òàêæå íà÷àëè áû íàñòóïëåíèå ïðîòèâ âîéñê ÑØÀ.

Ïðåäñåäàòåëü Îáúåäèíåííîãî êîìèòåòà íà÷àëüíèêîâ øòàáîâ ÑØÀ àäìèðàë Ìàéêë Ìàëëåí ðàíåå â ýòîì ìåñÿöå ïîñåòèë Èçðàèëü äëÿ ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñ ðóêîâîäèòåëÿìè èçðàèëüñêîé àðìèè è ïî âîçâðàùåíèè â Âàøèíãòîí ïóáëè÷íî çàÿâèë, ÷òî íàïàäåíèå Èçðàèëÿ íà Èðàí äåñòàáèëèçèðóåò ðåãèîí.

Ýíòîíè Êîðäñìàí èç Öåíòðà ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèõ è ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ èññëåäîâàíèé ñêàçàë, ÷òî ñëîâà Ìàëëåíà – ÿâíûé ïðèçíàê òîãî, ÷òî Èçðàèëü íå ïîëó÷èë îò Âàøèíãòîíà "çåëåíîãî ñâåòà" íà ïðîâåäåíèå îïåðàöèé ïðîòèâ Èðàíà.

Îòâåòñòâåííûé çà âíåøíþþ ïîëèòèêó ÅÑ Õàâüåð Ñîëàíà â ýòîì ìåñÿöå äîëæåí ïîñåòèòü Òåãåðàí, ÷òîáû îáñóäèòü âàðèàíòû, ïðåäëàãàåìûå ïîñòîÿííûìè ÷ëåíàìè ÑÁ ÎÎÍ è Ãåðìàíèåé â îáìåí íà âðåìåííóþ ïðèîñòàíîâêó îáîãàùåíèÿ è ïåðåðàáîòêè óðàíà. Îòâåò Èðàíà íå áûë îáíàðîäîâàí, íî ïóáëè÷íûå çàÿâëåíèÿ èðàíñêèõ îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö áûëè ãëàâíûì îáðàçîì íåãàòèâíûìè.

Ìèíèñòð íåôòè Èðàíà Ãîëÿìõîññåéí Íîçàðè ïðîèãíîðèðîâàë ïîñòóïîê Total, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî åãî ñòðàíà íå íóæäàåòñÿ â èíîñòðàííûõ èíâåñòèöèÿõ. "Ìû ïðîäîëæèì ðàçâèâàòüñÿ ñ íèìè èëè áåç íèõ", – ñêàçàë îí.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 21 2008, 10:17:35     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/corriere/2008/11/20/15:13:09/syria
ßäåðíûå ïðîãðàììû â Èðàíå è Ñèðèè. ÌÀÃÀÒÝ áüåò òðåâîãó
Ïàîëî Ñàëîì

Ãàçåòà Corriere della Sera íàïå÷àòàëà ñåãîäíÿ ñòàòüþ, ïîñâÿùåííóþ ïðîáëåìàì ñåêðåòíûõ ÿäåðíûõ ïðîãðàìì â Ñèðèè è Èðàíå.

Àâòîð ñòàòüè ïèøåò î òîì, ÷òî â÷åðà ïðåññå ñòàëî èçâåñòíî ñîäåðæàíèå äâóõ äîêëàäîâ ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, îáùåäîñòóïíîãî è ñåêðåòíîãî, êîòîðûå äîëæíû áûëè îáñóæäàòüñÿ ëèøü 27 è 28 íîÿáðÿ. Ïðîñî÷èâøèåñÿ ñâåäåíèÿ êàñàþòñÿ ÿäåðíûõ ïðîãðàìì Èðàíà è Ñèðèè.

Ïî èðàíñêîé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå ñîáðàíî ìíîãîñòðàíè÷íîå äîñüå: Òåãåðàí îáâèíÿþò â ïîïûòêàõ ñîçäàòü àòîìíóþ áîìáó. Èðàíñêèé ïðåçèäåíò Àõìàäèíåæàä ðàñïðîñòðàíÿåò óãðîçû ("Èñëàìñêàÿ Ðåñïóáëèêà îòðåæåò ðóêè âñåì, êòî æåëàåò çëà èðàíñêîìó íàðîäó, è òåì, ÷òî íàìåðåâàåòñÿ íàðóøèòü ïðàâà èðàíöåâ"). ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ñî ñâîåé ñòîðîíû, ïîäòâåðæäàåò îòñóòñòâèå "ñåðüåçíûõ óñïåõîâ" ïî âàæíûì âîïðîñàì, êàñàþùèìñÿ ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììû Èðàíà. Ãåíåðàëüíûé äèðåêòîð ÌÀÃÀÒÝ àëü-Áàðàäåè íå â ñîñòîÿíèè èñêëþ÷èòü íàëè÷èå âîåííîé ñîñòàâëÿþùåé ïðîãðàììû. "Ïî ïðè÷èíå îòñóòñòâèÿ ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà ñî ñòîðîíû Èðàíà ïî âîïðîñàì, ïðåäñòàâëÿþùèì áîëüøóþ âàæíîñòü, àãåíòñòâî íå ñóìåëî äîñòè÷ü âåñîìûõ óñïåõîâ", – ãîâîðèòñÿ â äîêëàäå.  äîêóìåíòå, íàïðàâëåííîì, â òîì ÷èñëå, è Ñîâåòó Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, ãîâîðèòñÿ î òîì, ÷òî Èðàí áëèçîê ê çàâåðøåíèþ óñòàíîâêè ïî÷òè 6000 öåíòðèôóã. Èç íèõ, êàê ñîîáùàåò èñòî÷íèê, áëèçêèé ê ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, 3800 öåíòðèôóã óæå äåéñòâîâàëè íà ÿäåðíîì îáúåêòå â Íàòàíçå. ÌÀÃÀÒÝ ðàñïîëàãàåò ñâåäåíèÿìè î òîì, ÷òî ê àâãóñòó ýòîãî ãîäà Èðàí ïðîèçâåë óæå 2 òîííû îáîãàùåííîãî óðàíà, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíî áîëüøå ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ ïðîøëûì ïåðèîäîì. Àãåíòñòâî èñïûòûâàåò ñåðüåçíûé ïåññèìèçì è â îòíîøåíèè äèàëîãà ñ èðàíñêèìè âëàñòÿìè: "Ìû íàõîäèëèñü â ìåðòâîé òî÷êå, íî ðàíüøå ó íàñ áûëà õîòÿ áû âîçìîæíîñòü ãîâîðèòü, – ïðèçíàëñÿ îäèí èç ñîòðóäíèêîâ ÎÎÍ. – Òåïåðü ñèòóàöèÿ çíà÷èòåëüíî óõóäøèëàñü. Íåò äàæå âèäèìîñòè äèàëîãà".

Íå ìåíüøåå áåñïîêîéñòâî âûçûâàåò ñèðèéñêàÿ ÿäåðíàÿ ïðîãðàììà. Ïî äàííûì äîêëàäà ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, Äàìàñê, åñòåñòâåííî, òàéíî îñóùåñòâëÿåò ñâîè èññëåäîâàíèÿ. Èíñïåêòîðû ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, ñîîáùèë àëü-Áàðàäåè, íàøëè íà îáúåêòå "Àëü-Êèáàð", ïîäâåðãøåìñÿ áîìáàðäèðîâêå èçðàèëüñêîé àâèàöèè â ñåíòÿáðå 2007 ãîäà, ñëåäû ðàäèîàêòèâíîãî ìàòåðèàëà. Íî äëÿ îêîí÷àòåëüíûõ âûâîäîâ òðåáóþòñÿ äîïîëíèòåëüíûå, áîëåå ïîäðîáíûå äàííûå. Íàïðèìåð, îñìîòð ñòðîèâøåãîñÿ íà òîò ìîìåíò îáúåêòà. "Õîòÿ ìû íå ìîæåì èñêëþ÷èòü, ÷òî ñòðîèâøèéñÿ îáúåêò íà ìîìåíò àâèàóäàðà áûë ïðåäíàçíà÷åí íå äëÿ ÿäåðíûõ èññëåäîâàíèé, – ãîâîðèòñÿ â äîêëàäå, – îñîáåííîñòè çäàíèÿ è ïîäâåäåííàÿ ê íåìó ñèñòåìà ïî çàêà÷êå âîäû äëÿ îõëàæäåíèÿ î÷åíü ïîõîæè íà õàðàêòåðèñòèêè îáúåêòà ñ ÿäåðíûì ðåàêòîðîì". Ïîêà Ñèðèÿ íå ïîçâîëÿåò ýêñïåðòàì ÎÎÍ ïðèáëèæàòüñÿ ê ðóèíàì "Àëü-Êèáàðà", ïèøåò àâòîð ñòàòüè.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 26 2009, 11:11:03     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/26feb2009/bushehr_101.html
Èðàí îáúÿâèë î íà÷àëå "àòîìíîé ýðû". Ôîòîðåïîðòàæ
Â÷åðà, â ñðåäó 25 ôåâðàëÿ, íà àòîìíîé ýëåêòðîñòàíöèè â Áóøåðå â òîðæåñòâåííîé îáñòàíîâêå áûëè íà÷àòû èñïûòàíèÿ ñ ïðèìåíåíèåì òàê íàçûâàåìûõ èìèòàöèîííûõ òîïëèâíûõ ñòåðæíåé.  ñêîðîì âðåìåíè áóäóò ïðîèçâåäåíû ãèäðàâëè÷åñêèå èñïûòàíèÿ àòîìíîé ñòàíöèè – íà ïðî÷íîñòü è ïëîòíîñòü.

- Ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû Èçðàèëÿ: ìû íå èñêëþ÷àåì íèêàêèõ âàðèàíòîâ âîçäåéñòâèÿ, â òîì ÷èñëå âîåííûõ

Ãåíåðàëüíûé äèðåêòîð ðîññèéñêîé ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé êîðïîðàöèè "Ðîñàòîì" Ñåðãåé Êèðèåíêî, ïðèáûâøèé â Èðàí íàêàíóíå è ïðèñóòñòâîâàâøèé ïðè íà÷àëå èñïûòàíèé, îáúÿâèë, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ çàâåðøèëà ñòðîèòåëüñòâî Áóøåðñêîé ÀÝÑ.

Ñåãîäíÿ èðàíñêèå ÑÌÈ ïèøóò î íà÷àëå íîâîé, "àòîìíîé" ýðû â æèçíè Èñëàìñêîé ðåñïóáëèêè. Ïðè ýòîì îñîáîå âíèìàíèå îáðàùàåòñÿ íà òî, ÷òî Èðàí íå ñîáèðàåòñÿ ñâîðà÷èâàòü íàöèîíàëüíóþ ïðîãðàììó îáîãàùåíèÿ óðàíà.

Ãëàâà Îðãàíèçàöèè ïî àòîìíîé ýíåðãèè Èðàíà Ãîëàìðåçà Àãàçàäå, ïðèñóòñòâîâàâøèé â÷åðà íà öåðåìîíèè íà÷àëà èñïûòàíèé â Áóøåðå, çàÿâèë, ÷òî â òå÷åíèå ïÿòè ëåò â Èðàíå áóäóò óñòàíîâëåíû åùå 50 òûñÿ÷ öåíòðèôóã äëÿ îáîãàùåíèÿ óðàíà. Ïî åãî ñëîâàì, ïëàí ïî óñòàíîâêå öåíòðèôóã "íå ñâÿçàí ñ ïîëèòè÷åñêèìè óñëîâèÿìè".  íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ â Íàòàíçå ðàáîòàþò 6.000 öåíòðèôóã, è óñòàíîâêà íîâûõ îñóùåñòâëÿåòñÿ ñîãëàñíî ðàçðàáîòàííîìó ãðàôèêó, ñêàçàë Àãàçàäå.

Ïî ñëîâàì ãëàâû Îðãàíèçàöèè ïî àòîìíîé ýíåðãèè, äîêëàä ÌÀÃÀÒÝ, â êîòîðîì óòâåðæäàëîñü, ÷òî òåìïû óñòàíîâêè öåíòðèôóã çàìåäëèëèñü, íå ñîîòâåòñòâóåò äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè. "Ìû íå óñêîðÿëè è íå çàìåäëÿëè ðàáîòó", – ïîä÷åðêíóë Àãàçàäå. Îí ïðèçâàë ÑØÀ ñìèðèòüñÿ ñ ñóùåñòâîâàíèåì ÿäåðíîãî Èðàíà, ÷òîáû îáëåã÷èòü ñåáå äîñòóï íà èðàíñêèé ÿäåðíûé ðûíîê, ïåðåäàåò àãåíòñòâî Reuters.

Àãàçàäå çàÿâèë, ÷òî 9 àïðåëÿ Èñëàìñêàÿ ðåñïóáëèêà ïðîäåìîíñòðèðóåò ìèðó î÷åðåäíîå ÿäåðíîå äîñòèæåíèå. Äîïîëíèòåëüíûå äåòàëè îí ñîîáùàòü íå ñòàë.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 17 2009, 18:32:22     :

Çíàòíàÿ ïðîâîêàöèÿ!

ß, òèïà, ðåêîìåíäîâàë áû Íåòàíèÿãó àòàêîâàòü Èðàí. Ïî÷åìó? Òîëüêî ïîòîìó ÷òî Èðàí ìîæåò ÷åðåç ãîä ñîçäàòü ñâîþ ÿäåðíóþ áîìáó.

Èðàí, ïðàâäà, îòíåêèâàåòñÿ, çàÿâëÿåò ÷òî åãî ÿäåðíàÿ ïðîãðàììà ìèðíàÿ, ÷òî ó íåãî íåò ïëàíîâ ñîçäàâàòü àòîìíóþ áîìáó....

Äà êòî æ åìó ïîâåðèò! Ìîæåò â ïðèíöèïå ñîçäàòü? Ìîæåò! Ê òîìó æå ñòðàíà, ïî ìíåíèþ àâòîðà ñòàòüè, ïîãðÿçëà â ïðîñòèòóöèè, íàðêîòèêàö, áåäíîñòè, êîððóïöèè, âñåõ èãíîðèðóåò.

Î÷åíü ïëîõàÿ ñòðàíà! Ôó! Áîìáèòü å¸!

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1078897.html
Yossi Melman / I would advise Netanyahu to attack Iran
By Yossi Melman

If I were Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security adviser, I would advise attacking Iran. It doesn't have to happen immediately. Although Iran has crossed the "technological threshold" and already has most of the know-how, the equipment and the materials to enable it to create a nuclear bomb, it will take anther year at least, and maybe even three, to implement the potential and the capability it has accumulated.

In any case, Israel must wait in order to not disrupt U.S. President Barack Obama's strategy of talking to Iran, a strategy that is destined to fail.

These are the main considerations that should determine whether or not to attack:

1. Would nuclear weapons in Iranian hands really constitute a clear and present danger to the existence of Israel?

2. Does Israel have the intelligence and operational capability to enable it to strike hard at Iran's nuclear sites?

3. What damage would be caused to Israel by an Iranian response?

4. Would an Israeli attack harm vital U.S. interests?

5. How would the Arab world react to such an attack?

As an adviser, here are my answers.

1. It is not certain that nuclear bombs in Iranian hands would necessarily constitute an existential threat to Israel. The Gulf states, such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, should be more afraid than Israel, and in fact they are extremely worried. It is also difficult to imagine that the ayatollahs would use nuclear weapons. Such a use would not only eradicate the nation being attacked, it would also destroy the regime of the religious leaders as well as the lives of millions of people in Iran. But Israel will still have difficulty trusting in the rationalism of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ayatollah Ali Khomanei.

2. Israel has the military ability to cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear program, to hit the nerve centers of production: the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, the uranium conversion facility in Isfahan and several additional sites where they are working on assembling the bomb. Such as attack would delay Iran's nuclear capability by several years, but would not destroy it entirely.

3. Iran has about 100 missiles that can reach Israel, and would also activate Hezbollah and its terror networks worldwide. But in spite of its technological achievements, Iran is a backward country, burdened with the problems of prostitution, drugs, poverty, ignorance and above all, corruption. It is doubtful whether a country that is riddled with rot is capable of maintaining a strong and efficient army. Iran is a paper tiger.

4. An attack that is not coordinated with Washington would cause a deep rift with the United States and lead to the imposition of harsh sanctions against Israel.

5. The Arab and Muslim world would condemn Israel.

Ostensibly, the obvious conclusion from these answers is that an attack against Iran is too great a gamble, one that the Israeli leadership should not take. That is also the reigning opinion among senior members of the Obama administration - from Vice President Joe Biden to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who recently spoke on the subject - and most U.S. experts.

An exception to this group thinking can be found in words written recently by editor David Samuels in the online magazine Slate, in an article entitled, "Why Israel will bomb Iran." The essence of his assumptions, which favor attack, are as follows: Israel's special status in the United States stems not only from common cultural values and the Christian belief in the Holy Land and from the memory of the horrors of the Holocaust, but also, and primarily, from Israel's image as the lone ranger who fights the bad guys in the Wild West of the Middle East, in order to defend its existence. Recently there have been cracks in this image due to what are seen as Israel's failures in the most recent campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. In Samuels' opinion, Israeli weakness is undermining strategic cooperation with the United States, while Iran is trying to achieve regional hegemony.

According to Samuels, while an Israeli attack may serve American interests, it will force the Obama administration to behave as though those interests have actually been harmed. The angry Arab and Muslim world will always suspect that Washington was a secret partner and gave Israel the green light to attack. In order to assuage Arab Muslim anger, the United States will have to force Israel to withdraw from the territories and enable the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Therefore, a good adviser must tell Netanyahu: Don't wait until they force you to do something you don't want to do. Preempt it. An attack on Iran is a window of opportunity that could not only remove the nuclear threat, but also restore Israel's status as a regional superpower and its image as crazy and unpredictable and a state which will stop at nothing.

The truth is that such an attack serves the interests of the United States, the West and the Arab world, but they would find it difficult to admit it and would be forced to respond harshly to an Israeli offensive. Therefore, if I were the national security adviser, I would explain to the prime minister than an attack alone, even if it succeeds, would not serve Israel's true national interests.

In order to implement a strategic breakthrough, the Israeli government will have to orchestrate a formative historic event. It must agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state and operate at a feverish pace to that end. In such a case, not only would the United States and the pro-Western Sunni Arab world accept the attack on their Shi'ite rival, they would even welcome it, thus making it possible to pave the way to more peace agreements with Arab nations, security arangements a strategic alliance based on common interests.

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